Time of the Season
“To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven” Eccl. 3:1
This week there were two historic votes in Congress. Both the house and the senate added amendments to the appropriations bills for the occupation of Iraq which incorporated the benchmarks that President Bush outlined in his original proposals for sending more troops. The President clearly does not want to sign a bill that he feels imposes any limits on his ability to determine how the current occupation will be managed. He has stated that he will veto any bill coming out of Congress with that language.
It is clear that Congress has the votes and the will to send a bill to the President.
It also appears clear that the President has the will to veto that bill.
There is a lot speculation that we are going to see a repeat of the brinkmanship which brought the federal government to a halt during Bill Clinton’s confrontation with Newt Gingrich. The difference here is that it will threaten to bring the defense department to a grinding halt, which can’t be good for anyone getting shot at.
My bet is that the Democrats are smart enough to allow an unencumbered funding bill to pass if they can’t muster sufficient support to override the veto for even a watered down version of the current bill.
If they do, then they will have created significant “cover” for democrats like Clinton who voted for the original Iraq invasion. Iraq will finally belong unequivocally and irrevocably to Mr. Bush and whoever is left supporting him. Similarly the fate of the Republican party will be tied to whatever progress in Iraq occurs between now and November, 2008.
If it all unfolds in this way, I think that the Democrats are pretty much assured of expanding their majority in the next election and taking over the White House. This may also signal the beginning of the end of the conservative coalition which served the Republican Party so faithfully for the past two presidential elections.
The challenge then will be to govern. Hopefully, it will be a government that represents more of the people than we’ve had of late.
April 3rd, 2007 at 7:56 pm
I agree with this analysis. And my hope is that Clinton will swing left enough to win the nomination and then start slamming the Republicans for the FACT that they are weak on defense.
If 911 and Iraq were truly important enough to go to war for, then the Republicans should have spent the money and fielded the troops/equipment necessary to actually fight the war. They have been weak.
And I think that this leaves the “permanent Republican majority” vulnerable. The conservative majority was built on abortion, national defense and tax cuts. The Democrats have an opportunity to steal national defense if they play this right.
The War in Iraq might just be a blip on the screen in a larger realignment of American politics.
April 4th, 2007 at 2:51 am
Mike,
Thanks for your thoughts.
If your analysis is correct, the opportunity may exist in the other shoe of the Iraq timetable. That is, redeployment to Afghanistan rather than retreat. The Taliban have regrouped and the troops in Afghanistan appear to be struggling to deal with it.
With regard to the “permanent Republic majority”, I think that unless there is a dramatic turn of events in Iraq, it is toast. The larger realignment in American Politics is already underway. The beginning of that shift was signaled by the erosion of James Dobson’s power to manipulate the religious right through his narrow political agenda.
Democracy is a wonderful thing to behold.
Jeff
April 4th, 2007 at 6:29 am
Well, I think the American military in Iraq needs to go to Afaganistan, By trveling through Iran