They’re Back!

The news of the day is that al-Qaeda is back.
 
The most recent National Threat Estimate raises the specter of renewed activity by the group responsible for the attacks in the united states on almost six years ago.
 
The President is spinning this report in a very interesting way.
 
He would like to use the growing threat of al-Qaeda as justification for continued military action in Iraq.  In order to do that, he also has to deflect criticism that the war in Iraq is responsible for the renewed strength of al-Qaeda.  How did he do it? 
 
The first thing he did was to conflate the invasion of Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq as one act rather than two.  He depended on the fact that only part of the most recent threat assessment was made public.  Finally he claimed that al-Qaeda would have been much stronger by now if it weren’t for our military actions.  The problem is that he provided no proof to back his claim.
 
When you try to dig through this spin to the facts, the picture changes.
 
As Richard Clark, a security expert in both the Bush and Clinton administrations, pointed out, the Bush administration was taking credit two years ago for the National Intelligence Estimate which portrayed al-Qaeda as broken and on the run.  Assuming that report is as accurate as this one, what changed?
 
Here are some facts.
 

  1. All our government studies confirm that the war in Iraq has served as a primary recruiting and training ground for al-Qaeda.
  2. Those same studies also confirm that al-Qaeda is as much a philosophy as it is a command and control organization.  So the continued existence of al-Qaeda inspires other fundamentalist Islamic organizations to also take up the cause through terrorist acts.
  3. The war in Iraq took focus away from the war in Afghanistan.  This allowed the Taliban to regroup, create safe havens, and go on the offensive.
  4. Our stature in the Muslim world has made it difficult for our ally Pakistan’s General Musharraf to aggressively pursue al-Qaeda strongholds on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
  5. If we unilaterally attack al-Qaeda in Pakistan, we may cause enough internal unrest in Pakistan that the government falls and is replaced by a more fundamentalist regime.  If that happens, things become MUCH worse in the Middle East because Pakistan has a proven nuclear capability.
  6. Because of our focus on Iraq, we’ve lost all momentum and leverage in the issue which is at the core of the problems in the Middle East.  That is the relationship between Israel and her neighbors.  That has allowed Iran and Syria to increase their influence which has resulted in the growth of Hezbollah and Hamas. 
  7. According to the National Threat Estimate, the most likely source of terrorists willing to attack the United States is not al-Qaeda in Iraq, but Hezbulla in Lebanon.  That is Iran’s way to retaliate for what it perceives as threats from the US and Israel. 

Things seem to continue to worsen.   

The Bush administration appears to have maneuvered us into a position where we either risk the fall of the Musharraf government, or we allow al-Qaeda to continue to grow. If that weren’t bad enough, we also have the choice of allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons or deal with a second Islamic fundamentalist group funded by Iran and with the safe havens in Lebanon from which they can plan and execute large scale attacks on the United States.

So please tell me again how things are getting better and what we are winning in Iraq.

For those of you inclinded to pray, this is a good time to know that God is the source of all power, intelligence, and wisdom.  Man, made in His image and likeness, reflects all of these divine qualities in thought and action.  

For those of you included to vote, we need a change of direction which requires a change of philosophy. The Neo-con view of the world demonstrated by the Bush administration has failed.  Please spend the time to listen and learn what new approaches the current crop of Presidential candidates propose.

4 Responses to “They’re Back!”

  1. Ria says:

    Everyone should at very least read the back of the jacket of Richard Clarke’s book: “Against All Enemies; Inside America’s War on Terror.” That little excerpt says a lot. And to add to the list above about Al Quaeda,
    Bin Laden himself stated he would bankrupt the U.S. They did it to Russia. How many years did the Russians fight them in Afghanistan? Al Quaeda cost Russia plenty for nothing.

    And my personal statement to this administration and it’s backers about this is: “Did you ever think that maybe Al Quaeda and the terrorists have kept us busy fighting in Iraq, wearing down our military, costing us billions, while terrorist operatives piled into our country through all the open borders. Iraq is a diversion for the terrorists or us? The notion of fighting them on their ground is ludicrous. What ground? Terrorism isn’t a country!

    Your last statement about voting the neocons out is a no brainer, but wait, neocon supporter Rupert Murdoch is set to buy yet another media source? Don’t we have laws about monopoly anymore? When there has to be a special outside panel defending the editorial content against the paper’s new owner, Murdoch, it’s a scary event for journalism in this country. Say iit isn’t so.

  2. Jeff Beamsley says:

    Ria,

    Thanks for your comment.

    I did enjoy Richard Clark’s book. He continues to be a voice of reason in what appears to be a sea of spin.

    My favorite quote of his is that Bush, by invading Iraq, acted as if bin Laden were whispering in his ear.

    It is frustrating to continue to see the Bush administration desperately posture as if they have a clue about how to respond. For an administration that prides themselves on their ability to manipulate the american people, they have been played by bin Laden as no previous adminstration in history.

    Jeff

  3. Ria says:

    They’ve certainly given him the most celebrity. I’ve always been a fan of sneaking up on an enemy, not having a shoot out in the middle of town (Iraq) like an impetuous cowboy. I was a little amazed at all the cowboys that turned up when 9/11 happened. They seemed to have ditched their spurs since. Seems the shootout has gone awry.

  4. Jeff Beamsley says:

    Ria,

    We had an opportunity to turn bin Laden into a historical footnote and chose instead to take down Saddam. I suspect that historians are not going to look fondly on this presidency. If nothing else, it will be because they have far fewer documents to research than with any previous presidency.

    Jeff

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