The Tea Party came into existence after the election in 2008 because of concerns over the financial meltdown, bailout and stimulus spending, and the subsequent passage of Obamacare.
They scored a major victory in the off year 2010 elections and roared into Washington with what they felt was a mandate to bring debt and deficits down and cut spending. Their promise was that they would not permit the government to borrow more without also forcing the government to spend less.
Then a terrible thing happened. They succeeded.
In fairness they weren’t alone. The economy improved. The deals that they struck with Obama included new taxes. Obamacare and the slow recovery reduced the growth in healthcare costs. Slowing the growth in healthcare costs changed Medicare’s long term financial outlook from critical to manageable. Global economic instability kept US interest rates low, so our costs to finance our current debt are not the drain on the treasury previously predicted. The result is that the deficit has fallen faster than any time since WWII.
Now, according to the CBO, the deficit has not only fallen, but is stabilizing in the totally manageable 2-3% of GDP range for at least the next decade. What that means is that as long as the economy grows at a faster rate than that, our debt as a percentage of GDP will go down. What THAT means is that we now have some breathing room to deal with the longer term issues of Social Security and Medicare without draconian spending cuts that will impact GDP growth or the radical entitlement restructuring that Republicans championed as recently as the 2012 elections.
Our dramatically improved financial condition eliminated the Tea Party’s primary issue. The sky is no longer falling and the Tea Party is adrift. What’s worse, this lack of direction is becoming painfully obvious to the American voter.
That’s the underlying reason for the suicide attack they recently launched on Obamacare. They felt their influence slipping away and responded with a desperate attempt to rally the troops for one last quixotic charge at their old nemesis.
What they discovered though, is that while many voters shared their concern about debt, far fewer were willing to sign on to shut down the government and defund Obamacare.
Without a shared vision of the future, Speaker Boehner was left trying to cobble together a majority by offering some representatives Obamacare delays, others looser drilling regulations, and still others tax reform borrowed from Paul Ryan’s budget. This was the first we even heard from Paul Ryan since his budget ideas crashed and burned in 2012. The fact that Boehner failed to find common ground within his own party when so much was on the line is testimony to the stark reality that, though the Tea Party remains angry and deeply distrustful of Obama, they don’t know what to do about it.
Voters sense that too because, without the debt boogey man, there is no logic to Tea Party passions or positions. Instead of saying, “we won’t let the government borrow more until it agrees to spend less”, we have, “we won’t let the government borrow more to pay it’s now manageable debt unless it blocks net neutrality, agrees to more drilling, and delays implementation of a debt-reducing law that we don’t like.”
Voters were willing to tolerate Tea Party tactics when it seemed that those tactics would in fact reduce spending. Now that spending has been reduced, voters want the Tea Party to demonstrate that they can come down from the barricades, grow up, behave like adults, and be trusted to run the government in a responsible manner. That was the message voters sent in 2012 and the Tea Party has ignored.
What voters have discovered is that these bad boys may have been fun to date in 2010, but they are not the sort of guy you ever marry. They needed these guys to deal with the scary prospect of out of control spending and ballooning debt. Now that this dirty job is largely done, voters are discovering that people who deny science, math, and economics are just as frightening and can do some real damage when they have power.
This is particularly true of the business community. Here’ a selection of comments from a WSJ article.
Mark Thierer, chairman and CEO of Catamaran Corp., a major pharmacy-benefit manager, said business’s relationship with the GOP “is going to need a retooling,” adding that he would continue to make modest contributions to centrists. “I am not going to give up on the Republican Party—I am going to encourage moderation,” he said.
Bruce Josten, the Chamber of Commerce’s top lobbyist, said he has pushed members of Congress to keep the government open and to understand that flirting with default is “just plain stupid.” To Republicans who tried to use the budget battle to unravel the health care law, he said: “They’ve accomplished nothing.”
John Engler, the former Republican governor of Michigan who now heads the Business Roundtable, a trade group, said the normal legislative process—where bills are debated and passed by each house of Congress, and then married together—encourages compromise. “Today we have a significant number of people who don’t want to compromise because they think they can win something that’s been unwinnable,” he said.
Hal Sirkin, a senior partner with the Boston Consulting Group, said his conversations with executives in a range of industries suggest widespread frustration with the Republican party. The budget battle “is giving them pause to reconsider everything that they believed” about conservative support for business, he said. Some executives have told him they plan to pull back their support for the party “as a message to say, this is not acceptable. You can’t trash the business community,” he added.
David French, top lobbyist at the National Retail Federation, guesses that business lobbies will back somewhere between 12 and 25 business-friendly Republicans in primaries next year. “We don’t like having a very high stakes poker game where we’re dealt out and nobody’s going to win,” he said.
Several business executives said they were counting on establishment GOP leaders, including House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, to move immigration and future fiscal legislation. But those same leaders struggled to steer the House toward a fiscal compromise and struggled to pass another business priority, the farm bill, amid conservative demands to curtail food stamps.
The painful truth is that the voters’ love affair with the Tea Party is over. The tighter the Tea Party tries to hold onto this relationship, the more distant and resentful the American voter will become. It has all of the earmarks of a breakup that is only going to get uglier as the big 2014 dance approaches.