Archive for August, 2015

Trump and the Crazy Train

Friday, August 14th, 2015

There is certainly one thing that you can say about Trump – he is entertaining.

What people aren’t talking about is the fact that ALL of the Republican presidential candidates are in one way or another just as crazy as Trump.

Trump represents an interesting populist anti-establishment uprising that has surprised the party establishment, the media, and Trump. He is also the natural evolution of the “money votes” economy. Rand Paul was on the right track when he said that Trump is “used to buying politicians”. He has simply taken the next step of by passing the middle man and representing his own interests. Whether he is able to translate this into a nomination is yet to be seen.

He gained momentum by demonizing undocumented workers. He fanned the flames of xenophobia by claiming that Mexico was deliberately sending their most dangerous citizens to us to deal with.

All of the rest of the candidates were dragged along to support Trump’s claim that there is a crisis at the border. Rubio tried to distance himself from his previous support of a path to citizenship. Walker also changed his tune. Christie called his previous support a “garbage idea”. Even Trump had flipped from his earlier support of path to citizenship. Only Kasich, Hackabee, Carson, and Paul have resisted the urge to jump on the “we’re being overwhelmed with criminals” bandwagon.

The problem is that fact checkers call this claim false. Illegal immigration peaked in 2007 and has actually declined since. Deportations hit an all time high in 2013 of 400K. Most of those were convicted of crimes in this country. More robust border enforcement has not only dramatically reduced illegal immigration, but it has also discouraged undocumented workers from leaving this country for fear that they won’t be able to get back in. The result is a fairly stable population of undocumented workers in this country of 11M. Their children, at least those born here, will automatically be citizens. If these trends continue, within thirty years the number of undocumented workers will drop by 50% without any other actions on our part.

So the only value in building a bigger wall is that it will likely provide some jobs for those that the wall is intended to keep out.

How about abortion?

Trump flipped from his previous support of abortion.

Rubio lied about never supporting exceptions to abortion.

Bush questioned whether, “we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues.”

Huckabee said he would ignore the Supreme Court and declare that a “baby inside the mother’s womb is a person at the moment of conception.”

Santorum, who has built his political career on his opposition to abortion, took the opportunity to question Carson’s character because Carson used fetal tissue in his medical research. “When you start to see some of these cracks, I think it may show whether the person is really someone who’s going to take on an issue and be strong on it when they get into the very difficult position of being President of the United States.” An interesting attack from the guy who recently failed a significant test of character when he had to choose between politics and his religious faith on the topic of climate change.

How about healthcare?

Trump flip flopped in his previous support for single payor.

All promise to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better. NONE have said what that something better would be other than some discussion that health savings accounts would be nice.

How about the use of our military in the Middle East?

Rand Paul is the only one who would not put “boots on the ground”.

Fiorina lied when she claimed that the US wasn’t arming the Kurds. We are doing it through the Iraqi government.

How about the economy?

Jeb promises that he can deliver 4% growth off into the future based on his experience in Florida and his belief in supply side economics. The reality is that he presided over a huge real estate bubble in Florida. When it burst, shortly after he left office, 900K of the 1.3M jobs he claimed to create vanished. Funny the same thing happened to his brother’s supply-side experiment.

Many economists think that 4% is just out of our reach because of the demographic headwinds of the baby boomer retirement. You really have to believe in the fairy dust of supply side economics to project that we would touch 3% as a result of government policies.

Christie claimed some big job numbers, but his state ranked 44 out of 50 in job growth.

Walker did not elaborate on his failure to deliver the 215K jobs he promised would appear as a result of the massive tax cuts he gave business. Instead he talked about job growth and job participation numbers. What he didn’t say is that these were the same numbers that existed prior to his election.

Huckabee solves everything with a consumption tax. One of the advantages of that tax is that even “illegals, prostitutes, pimps, and drug dealers” would be paying this tax. He claims that tax will generate 6% growth. I have to admit that 6 is better than 4 which is certainly better than 2, but just changing the tax policy won’t do it. You have to get more workers which just isn’t going to happen unless there is also a radical change in immigration policy which is not part of Huckabee’s plan. Even if you got more workers, you would also have to have a significant change in productivity because wages would have to track this growth in order to get more money into the economy. Huckabee hasn’t even thought of this because his consumption tax shifts most of the tax burden to the poor. All he has thought about is that 6 is better than 4.

Then there is Doc Carson, who suggest that we should all tithe 10% of income instead of pay taxes. When asked whether or not it would work, he said that if it worked for God, it will work for us.

Summary

In this context it isn’t surprising that Trump is having the success that he has been having. The reality is that the only half-way serious candidate in this train full of clowns is Kasich. Not surprisingly he is the most moderate of the bunch and as a result, the least likely to get the nomination.

This speaks volumes about what the Republican Party has become. This is no longer the party of George HW Bush or even Ronald Reagan. It has become the party of paranoia and extremism as the old white angry men, who have been the party’s backbone, struggle with the reality that they are no longer in control. They failed to defend marriage from the onslaught of gay rights. They failed to prevent the rollout of what they see as another big entitlement program in Obamacare. Black people are demanding justice. Hispanics have discovered the power of the ballot box. Even the Pope disagrees with their abortion obsession. And women are no longer content with staying home and raising children. They not only demand a career, but also equal pay for equal work.

These guys are growing tired of the effort required to hold back the flood of scientific evidence supporting human-caused climate change. Their dam has sprung so many leaks that they are running out of fingers to plug them. Coal-based electrical generation is not only polluting, it is expensive. The most economical and highest performance car is all electric, made in this country, and sold direct over the internet. The world is changing under their feet and there appears to be little they can do to prevent it except perhaps support someone who is willing to give voice to their fears and frustrations – Donald Trump.

Marco Rubio Camelot Detour

Thursday, August 13th, 2015

Marco Rubio has a problem. He has to find a way to distinguish himself in Republican primaries when the major emotional flow is fueled by xenophobia.

He was supposed to be the leader for the new generation of young Republicans. Good looking. Latino. Basically the Republican version of JFK. Unfortunately as Wart learned, the road to Camelot is not paved with gold or even good intentions. The road is a test of character. It is a test that Rubio has so far failed.

There were his frequent flips regarding immigration, the Iraq war, and national security spending.

His most recent flip regarding exceptions to abortion bans for rape, incest, or the health of the mother may be his most profound.

He has claimed that science now supports the assertion that a human life begins at conception. That claim is the basis for reversing his previous support of exceptions to abortion.

He appears to base this little bit of verbal gymnastics on the fact that a fertilized egg can only produce a human embryo. If that embryo is carried full term a baby is born.

Science explains this because of human DNA. It is this DNA that determines how the fertilized egg will grow and evolve. If human DNA is present in the cells of both the egg and the sperm, a human embryo will result every time.

What is wildly inaccurate though, is the claim that science supports his view that this fertilized egg is in fact equivalent to a human being. It is not. It is a fertile seed of a human being much in the same way that an acorn has the potential be an oak tree, but still needs a lot of growing to reach its potential.

Science does not take a position on when life begins. It has a method for determining the when something is alive. A human baby passes that test. A human embryo does not.

Rubio’s position is getting him some needed press visibility, but it is also going to damage him if he manages to make it to November 2016.

The country may be split on abortion rights, but women support abortion rights 50% to 41%. Obama coalition is built on women, minorities, immigrants, young people, LGBT, and educated professionals. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she is doing a pretty good job of holding that coalition together.

Rubio’s opportunity in the election cycle this year will likely be as a VP. Whomever ends up being the Republican nominee will choose between Rubio, Kasich, or may Fiorina.

What is interesting is that while Rubio is of Hispanic origin, Kasich is the one who supports a path to citizenship. Kasich, and not Fiorina, also supports abortion exceptions in the case of rape, incest, or the health of the mother. Rubio is from Florida. Fiorina is from California. Kasich is from Ohio. What state decided the last couple presidential elections? – Ohio.

So the path in 2016 for Rubio may not lead to Camelot. That’s because when it comes down to character, it turns out not to have anything to do with looks, ethnic background, or gender. It is a basic choice grounded in principle and tested under stress. The one person in the Republican field who appears to have passed that test won’t get the nomination for President, but is in a good position to get the VP nod – John Kasich.