Archive for February, 2019

Facing Reality

Tuesday, February 12th, 2019


After 35 days of government shutdown over funding a border wall, Congress has delivered Trump a deal that is WORSE than the compromise deal that Trump rejected last year.

The CBO estimates the shutdown will cost $11B and will shave 0.2% off the current economic growth forecasts. Most of that money will be recouped but at last $3B is gone and the real economic impact could be even larger.

The Guardian says;

CBO’s estimates do not incorporate other, more indirect negative effects of the shutdown, which are more difficult to quantify but were probably becoming more significant as it continued,” the report said. “For example, some businesses could not obtain federal permits and certifications, and others faced reduced access to loans provided by the federal government. Such factors were probably beginning to lead firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions.

The good news is that Trump will never be able to use the threat of a shutdown again.

He also likely is not going to be able to blow up deals on a whim. Democrats have demonstrated that they are not going to be intimidated. Whatever deal is on the table will be the best deal that you can get. If you reject it, whatever deal eventually takes its place will be worse than the rejected one.

Also, just to be sure, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows has joined other Republicans in signaling that they will support a regular, clean government funding bill if Trump rejects the current deal that is on the table.

What does that mean for the Democrats?

They have belled the cat. Trump was forced to reopen the government without a guarantee of wall funding. Now Trump is going to be forced to accept a deal that he doesn’t like BECAUSE his own party will open the government on their own without a border deal if he refuses.

This is all happening because the Republican KNOW that the Democrats could have struck an even tougher deal than the one they finally agreed to. They also know that Trump will likely throw them under the bus whether he chooses to sign or not. So they have little to lose in opposing him.

Besides they are also gearing up for the next battle which likely will be opposing the President’s attempts to steal money from other parts of the budget to appease the most conservative parts of his base.

In the meantime, Trump went to El Paso to repeat all of the lies that he told during the state of union address. He claimed that his crowd was bigger that Beto’s (it wasn’t). He repeated his lie about crime going down when El Paso built a wall (it didn’t). And he talked about winning (he isn’t).

Eventually we all have to deal with reality. The reality here is that we have moved pass “peak Trump”. It will all be downhill from here.