Facing Reality

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After 35 days of government shutdown over funding a border wall, Congress has delivered Trump a deal that is WORSE than the compromise deal that Trump rejected last year.

The CBO estimates the shutdown will cost $11B and will shave 0.2% off the current economic growth forecasts. Most of that money will be recouped but at last $3B is gone and the real economic impact could be even larger.

The Guardian says;

CBO’s estimates do not incorporate other, more indirect negative effects of the shutdown, which are more difficult to quantify but were probably becoming more significant as it continued,” the report said. “For example, some businesses could not obtain federal permits and certifications, and others faced reduced access to loans provided by the federal government. Such factors were probably beginning to lead firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions.

The good news is that Trump will never be able to use the threat of a shutdown again.

He also likely is not going to be able to blow up deals on a whim. Democrats have demonstrated that they are not going to be intimidated. Whatever deal is on the table will be the best deal that you can get. If you reject it, whatever deal eventually takes its place will be worse than the rejected one.

Also, just to be sure, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows has joined other Republicans in signaling that they will support a regular, clean government funding bill if Trump rejects the current deal that is on the table.

What does that mean for the Democrats?

They have belled the cat. Trump was forced to reopen the government without a guarantee of wall funding. Now Trump is going to be forced to accept a deal that he doesn’t like BECAUSE his own party will open the government on their own without a border deal if he refuses.

This is all happening because the Republican KNOW that the Democrats could have struck an even tougher deal than the one they finally agreed to. They also know that Trump will likely throw them under the bus whether he chooses to sign or not. So they have little to lose in opposing him.

Besides they are also gearing up for the next battle which likely will be opposing the President’s attempts to steal money from other parts of the budget to appease the most conservative parts of his base.

In the meantime, Trump went to El Paso to repeat all of the lies that he told during the state of union address. He claimed that his crowd was bigger that Beto’s (it wasn’t). He repeated his lie about crime going down when El Paso built a wall (it didn’t). And he talked about winning (he isn’t).

Eventually we all have to deal with reality. The reality here is that we have moved pass “peak Trump”. It will all be downhill from here.

12 Responses to “Facing Reality”

  1. Keith says:

    I have said all along let’s wait until the end. This certainly isnt the end but here’s Democrats says there is no evidence. Based on this result, if it really is the conclusion, then it’s just politics from here on out. Still waiting on Mr Muller to weigh in.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-has-uncovered-no-direct-evidence-conspiracy-between-trump-campaign-n970536

    What’s the reality of numerous dems saying they support the new green deal and navy calling it the green dream?

    Reality? – unemployment is low, anyone can get a job if they want it. Wages are rising. 401(k) at the moment are up. Pension plans are in decent shape. Young uneducated and educated workers, if willing, can be truck drivers, welders, etc and or unskilled factory workers. However they aren’t in as willing to do this as I’d hope. We can’t find enough and in some cases are limited in our growth because of it. Many good things. The trade war with China seems to be moving along, but could still end badly. I appuald the effort. Govt shut maybe be avoided and Nacy back down on no new wall/barrier. (Quite frankly nobody cares what it’s called. Did nancy lie? You would say trump did if he did something he said he wouldn’t.) debt continues to grow which I don’t like.

    World war three Ruth BG steps down next year and trump nominates someone and the senate confirms.

    Meanwhile the far left is crazy.

  2. Jeff Beamsley says:

    I have said all along let’s wait until the end. This certainly isnt the end but here’s Democrats says there is no evidence. Based on this result, if it really is the conclusion, then it’s just politics from here on out. Still waiting on Mr Muller to weigh in.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-has-uncovered-no-direct-evidence-conspiracy-between-trump-campaign-n970536

    Come on, there is WAY more to this investigation than just collusion and you know that. So please stop trying to follow the administrations “no collusion” line.

    Your bias is also showing. The Republican Senator said that there was no evidence that THEY could find of collusion and they felt that they had taken this investigation as far as they could go. The Democratic Senator said this:

    Sen. Mark Warner, D.-Va., ranking member of the committee, told reporters in the Capitol Tuesday that he disagrees with the way Burr characterized the evidence about collusion, but he declined to offer his own assessment.

    “I’m not going to get into any conclusions I have,” he said, before adding that “there’s never been a campaign in American history … that people affiliated with the campaign had as many ties with Russia as the Trump campaign did.”

    What’s the reality of numerous dems saying they support the new green deal and navy calling it the green dream?

    Please post a link to the article with details.

    Reality? – unemployment is low, anyone can get a job if they want it. Wages are rising. 401(k) at the moment are up. Pension plans are in decent shape. Young uneducated and educated workers, if willing, can be truck drivers, welders, etc and or unskilled factory workers. However they aren’t in as willing to do this as I’d hope. We can’t find enough and in some cases are limited in our growth because of it. Many good things. The trade war with China seems to be moving along, but could still end badly. I appuald the effort. Govt shut maybe be avoided and Nacy back down on no new wall/barrier. (Quite frankly nobody cares what it’s called. Did nancy lie? You would say trump did if he did something he said he wouldn’t.) debt continues to grow which I don’t like.

    If the economy is all that Trump can point to that is positive, why can’t we hold him accountable for knocking 0.2% off the GDP out of spite. He is going to sign a worse deal this week than he could have had when HE DECIDED To shut the government down. Why are you unwilling to hold him accountable for what has turned out to be a terrible decision?

    Also if we are going to give him credit for the current economy and that is the ONLY bright spot in his administration, what happens when the economy goes into recession? You willing to toss him out at that point?

    World war three Ruth BG steps down next year and trump nominates someone and the senate confirms.

    She may die, but she is not going to voluntarily step down before the 2020 election. For the good of the country, let’s hope that whomever wins the 2020 election gets to nominate her replacement.

    Meanwhile the far left is crazy.

    There are a lot of crazy people and crazy organizations in this country. They all help us celebrate the broad guarantees of free speech contained in the First Amendment. There is a group that is convinced the RBG is dead. There is a group convinced that the moon landings were faked. There is a group that is convinced that that Nixon was framed. There is a group convinced the Hillary Clinton killed Vince Foster. There are groups of people who dispute the science of climate change. Whatever your particular obsession, you can find a group of people who are willing to agree with you. IMHO, our problem is not trying to identify who is crazy and who is sane. Our problem is a willingness to believe whatever supports our own particular set of biases, and an unwillingness to critically examine data which calls those same beliefs into question. The result is that we end up talking only with those people who agree with us and labeling anyone who disagrees with us as “crazy” or worse.

  3. Jeff Beamsley says:

    What’s the reality of numerous dems saying they support the new green deal and navy calling it the green dream?

    Just another thought on this. Amy Klobuchar called it aspirational.

    “For us to do nothing and go backwards is wrong. So I view this as a framework for discussion,” Klobuchar said Tuesday on Fox. “We just need to start as a country seeing it as aspiration to do better than we’re doing now.”

    McConnell is going to hold a vote in the Senate on this because he wants to get Democratic Senators to take a vote that he thinks can be used against them in 2020.

    How different is this than Republicans who took about 60 votes to repeal Obamacare, and then when they finally had the votes in Congress and the support of the White House, failed to do it?

    It is being raised now to see if voters are sufficiently interested to support a candidate who promises to implement some or all of this plan.

    People tend to forget that Obama ran on ending the war in Iraq and reforming healthcare. By the time he got into the White House, his primary mission was to prevent a global depression. He did that, but paid a high political price for healthcare. It is hard to say what might have happened if he had followed up the financial bailout and saving the auto industry with a more robust infrastructure plan to stimulate employment rather than pivot to healthcare. I’m not sure he would have been able to get both done before 2010. It also isn’t clear whether or not the tea party would have still risen up to oppose him if he hadn’t taken on healthcare.

  4. Keith says:

    As you know I would have personally appauleded President Obama and or President Trump had they have perused an infrastructure bill. Unfortunately neither has. Why? IMHO BOTH had to appease their base and gonfor what they could. President Obama Health Care and Trump Tax Cuts. I blame neither for doing this. It’s a reflection of where we are. You get one thing as President. They both choose their one thing. Still hopeful for trump but not holding my breath.

    You in the other hand had a problem. The green new deal may become a litmus year for you Party. That’s not going to win for you is it?

    So far I’ve heard I’ve heard wealth tax – confiscation of property
    70% top tax rate Plus state and local. (Are you kidding?)
    As tax up to $135 k and then resuming at $400k at 7.4% (on top of 70%. Better get on the same page.)
    Little kids storming Senator Finestians office demanding she support the green new deal? She was force to tell them “I’ve been here for 30 years, maybe you should be listening to me. Side note did you know the earth will stop supporting life in 10-12 years if we don do something now. The freshman senator from Brooklyn even suggested you should have children because of this.

    Wow!!! It’s going too fast for me.

    Lesbian women getting pissed transsexual or transitioned woman as I. They same class as they. I have an article I have failed to send you in this.

  5. Jeff Beamsley says:

    https://nypost.com/2019/02/26/political-bias-is-destroying-peoples-faith-in-journalism/

    This is an opinion piece by a conservative columnist in a less than reputable newspaper.

    All this proves is that conservatives continue to believe, in an age when we have a President who is disconnected from reality and a party that supports him, that it is the press who are biased.

    As I’ve said before, I’m happy to engage on this topic as soon as you present some data to support your claim.

    What you posted is not data.

  6. Jeff Beamsley says:

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/andrew-sullivan-the-nature-of-sex.html

    The long awaited article.

    Another opinion piece by a conservative columnist. OK fine.

    The basic idea is similar to a lot of other conservative concerns. Why change the biological definition of gender when it is something that can be determined and replace it with something that is WAY more subjective?

    The simple answer is that people in this country actively discriminate against the LGBTQ community. Some justify this discrimination based on their religious beliefs. Some clearly are just threatened by difference.

    We also have President whose supports this point of view by suggesting that transgender people suffer from a disease.

    So let’s start from a basic philosophical position. I believe that sexual preference between consenting adults is nobody’s business. I also believe that those who are serving the public do not have the right to pick and choose who they serve regardless of their religious beliefs. Finally, I believe that employers have no right to deny employment to anyone based on their sexual preference or gender identity.

    Since our society can’t seem to work these things out on their own, we need legislation to provide those who have experienced discrimination some legal recourse.

    This has nothing to do with surgical choices made by parents for their children.

    Also this does not BAN single sex events, schools, dressing rooms, etc. Nor does it invalidate Bruce Jenner’s Olympic accomplishments. These are all common red-herring sorts of arguments that conservatives throw up when their REAL disagreement is with the philosophical points that I described.

    The law is intended to protect LGBTQ people from discrimination just like Title IX. Title IX did not result in men entering women’s athletic events. It instead required colleges to invest equally in athletic opportunities for men and women.

    Fortunately the author does eventually get to the core issue.

    There is a solution to this knotted paradox. We can treat different things differently. We can accept that the homosexual experience and the transgender experience are very different, and cannot be easily conflated. We can center the debate not on “gender identity” which insists on no difference between the trans and the cis, the male and the female, and instead focus on the very real experience of “gender dysphoria,” which deserves treatment and support and total acceptance for the individuals involved. We can respect the right of certain people to be identified as the gender they believe they are, and to remove any discrimination against them, while also seeing biology as a difference that requires a distinction. We can believe in nature and the immense complexity of the human mind and sexuality. We can see a way to accommodate everyone to the extent possible, without denying biological reality. Equality need not mean sameness.

    In other words, we need to admit as a society that there is a spectrum to both sexual preference and gender identity. Regardless of where you are on the spectrum, you should have the same rights and opportunities as anyone else on those spectra. If we can’t manage to respect difference in our culture, then we need the same legal protections that currently exist for race and religion.

  7. Jeff Beamsley says:

    As you know I would have personally appauleded President Obama and or President Trump had they have perused an infrastructure bill. Unfortunately neither has. Why? IMHO BOTH had to appease their base and gonfor what they could. President Obama Health Care and Trump Tax Cuts. I blame neither for doing this. It’s a reflection of where we are. You get one thing as President. They both choose their one thing. Still hopeful for trump but not holding my breath.

    Sorry but they aren’t the same. The reason Obama was unable to get an infrastructure bill going was because he lost his majority in the House and Republicans opposed ANY infrastructure spending.

    The reason Trump has been unable to get a bill going is because he can’t get enough of HIS OWN PARTY to support it even when that party had COMPLETE control of government. Democrats will introduce infrastructure bills in the House and will pass those bills. Whether or not they pass the Senate will depend on the support those bills receive from Trump.

    You in the other hand had a problem. The green new deal may become a litmus year for you Party. That’s not going to win for you is it?

    As I have said previously, this is the start of a conversation about national priorities. When Bernie Sanders first introduced concepts like single payer healthcare, reducing the costs of childcare, and increased government funding for college education; everyone said he was crazy. Many of those ideas are now broadly supported by voters and will likely be implemented by the next president regardless of party.

    The same is true of many of the ideas being discussed as part of the Green New Deal.

    As those ideas morph into forms that a majority of voters support, they will eventually become part of the platform that presidential candidates run on.

    So far I’ve heard I’ve heard wealth tax – confiscation of property
    70% top tax rate Plus state and local. (Are you kidding?)

    It’s just a number. It wasn’t confiscation of property during the Eisenhower administration. It won’t be confiscation of property if rates go up at some point in the future.

    Also the issue isn’t what the marginal rate is for the top earners. The issue is that Democrats are proposing changes in our spending priorities AND proposing ways to pay for them. Please compare that to the increases in spending under the Trump administration and the simultaneous tax cuts which have resulted in dangerous increases in debt.

    Little kids storming Senator Finestians office demanding she support the green new deal? She was force to tell them “I’ve been here for 30 years, maybe you should be listening to me. Side note did you know the earth will stop supporting life in 10-12 years if we don do something now. The freshman senator from Brooklyn even suggested you should have children because of this.

    Climate change IS a child welfare issue. I don’t have any problems with children and their parents demanding action from their elected representatives. Republicans have had no problem in past suggesting that Debt was a child welfare issue. Remember all of that talk about burdening our children and grandchildren with debt?

    “We must proceed with extreme caution before putting in place a huge and costly new program that will threaten our economy and the future of our children,”said Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire. House Minority Leader John Boehner greeted the news with an equally protective sentiment: “The Democrats’ out-of-control spending binge is burying our children and grandchildren under a mountain of unsustainable debt.”

    What changed? As far as I can see the only thing that changed is that a Republican is now in the White House.

    AOC’s was repeating a claim made by Sir David Attenborough who warned that climate change could lead to a “collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world.”

    Here’s her response to critics like you.

    Ocasio-Cortez’s comment Monday was in response to a question about when and why she decides to “clap back” against her social media critics. She said her main priority is to call out what she believes are widely accepted but incorrect assumptions, including the idea that people must choose between the economy and the environment.

    She is a very smart politician. You under estimate her to your own peril. She is speaking to her millennial generation. In 2020 they will represent that largest voting block. She isn’t old enough to run for president in 2020, but in a very short time she has taken up the mantle of leadership for her generation in much the same way that Robert Kennedy did in 1968 for Boomers.

    The Green New Deal is just one example. Here’s a quote from an article in The Nation.

    Even with a potentially large set of costs in mind, millennials continue to support rather than oppose the Green New Deal by nearly a 30-point margin, though Green New Deal proponents have their work cut out for them with other generations.

    Those are the sorts of margins that can get someone elected President in another 6-10 years.

  8. Jeff Beamsley says:

    BTW, how do you feel about Trump now that he used his national emergency powers to do something that he couldn’t accomplish legislatively?

    Here’s what Republican Senator Alexander said,

    “We’ve never had a case where the president has asked for money, been refused the money by Congress, then used the national emergency powers to spend it anyway,” he added. “To me that’s a dangerous precedent.”

  9. Jeff Beamsley says:

    BTW BTW, what happened to that 4% growth rate that you predicted? We didn’t even make it to 3% in 2018 and predictions are that it is all downhill from here.

    The solid growth in the fourth quarter resulted in the economy posting 2.9% growth for the full year. That’s the best year of growth since 2015.

    I forget, who was President in 2015?

    The sugar rush from the tax cuts is expected to fade and higher interest rates could become a headwind. The Chinese and European economies could slow even more, dragging down US growth, especially with the uncertainty about what will happen when the UK leaves the European Union later this year.

    “The first quarter won’t be this good,” said Ashworth. “We expect GDP growth to slow to 2.2% this year and only 1.2% in 2020.”

    Weren’t you the guy criticizing our past president for suggesting that 2% growth rates might be the new normal? What happens to your support for Trump when the economy drops to the low growth rates that are forecast?

  10. Jeff Beamsley says:

    Also what about this?

    President Trump’s approval ratings appear to be softening among members of his own party and independents, according to a series of polls conducted by The Hill and HarrisX since July.

    The president’s approval rating among Republicans sat at 87 percent in July, but has slipped to 79 percent in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey conducted earlier this month.

    The president’s approval rating among independents has also dropped.

    Of those that identified as independent, 44 percent surveyed said they approved of the job Trump was doing in July. That number has declined to 42 percent, according to the same poll conducted earlier this month.

    And

    Marist Poll director Lee Miringoff told Hill.TV on Wednesday that the polling shows a negative reaction from independents to current events involving Trump.

    “The independents are going to be very critical ultimately in this, and right now in terms of some short-term issues, they have some questions about what’s been going on,” Miringoff told host Krystal Ball on “What America’s Thinking.”

    “Independents have reacted to things like the wall, the closing of the government, the fact that they don’t think it’s an emergency,” he said.

    This poll doesn’t include any reaction to the Michael Cohen testimony or the failed NK summit.

    Here’s Rick Santorum’s reaction to Trump saying that he was willing to take KJU’s word that he knew nothing about the treatment Otto Wormbier received. I suspect that he isn’t alone.

    President Donald Trump’s decision not to hold North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un responsible for Otto Warmbier’s death was “reprehensible,” former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum said Thursday.

    “This is the conundrum of Donald Trump for many of us who like his policies and don’t like a lot of the things he does and says,” Santorum said of the decision to CNN’s John Berman on “New Day.”

    “But, this is reprehensible, what he just did. He gave cover, as you said, to a leader who knew very well what was going on with Otto Warmbier,” Santorum, who is a CNN political commentator, said. “And again, I don’t understand why the President does this. I am disappointed, to say the least, that he did it.”

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