We do not rely on gimmicks or creative accounting tricks to balance our budget.
This statement is in the introduction of the Republicans 2015 House budget.
This document declares that the most important thing that the country can do is balance the budget.
If you are doing a double-take at this point, so was I. Balance the budget? What about the party that last month said that they should make the poor their top priority. Or the party that said six months ago that the most important thing was to defeat ISIS? Or the party that for the past five years has been trying to repeal Obamacare?
Nope, we are now dealing with the party that says balancing the budget is the most important thing.
So I guess it should be no surprise this Republican budget not only fails to balance, but also includes a spectacular set of gimmicks and creative accounting tricks.
Here’s my list.
Dynamic Scoring – this is the CBO rule change passed by Republicans in September. What this means is that the CBO must now include economic impacts when determining the cost of a particular bill. In the past, the CBO simply projected cost and revenue without any attempt to determine how a particular piece of legislation would affect the economic models that are already in place. Using this new scoring, the Republican budget “gains” an additional $147B in mystery money.
Overseas Contingent Operations – This is a $90B Defense slush fund to allow Republicans claim that they are still abiding by the Sequestration cuts when they really aren’t. To make matters worse, $20B of the $90B is supposed to be offset by future spending cuts which were unspecified.
Obamacare Repeal – Republicans propose to repeal all of the benefits of Obamacare and the taxes that pay for them. The budget assumes that this is a wash, but there are $1T in tax revenues that aren’t accounted for, and the last CBO scoring had Obamacare reducing the deficit.
Missing $500B – The budget claims to save $5.5T over 10 years, but the fine print suggests that Congress is only responsible to find $5T in savings.
Other Mandatory Programs – Republicans cut $1T from this category without specifying which programs were going to be cut and by how much.
Medicare and CHIP fix – This long overdue bi-partisan plan will cost $141B over the next 10 years. It was not included in the Republican budget.
What about the poor?
Those are the people both Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz said should be better represented by the Republican Party. This budget includes deep cuts to food stamps and Medicaid. Rough estimates are that this budget would double the number of Americans without health insurance and that’s before the additional promised $1T in cuts. The stark reality is that there isn’t that much left to cut unless you include Social Security and Medicare.
Spending on government programs other than Social Security and Medicare would fall to 7.2 percent of GDP in 2025 — 40 percent below the average of 12.2 percent of GDP over the past 40 years, and far below the previous post-World War II low (which was 9.4 percent of GDP in the late 1990s). In short, the federal government outside Social Security and Medicare would gradually become a shell of its former self.
During the financial crisis, Republicans pointed at the big deficits and big stimulus programs as irresponsible. In the context of deficits hitting 10% of GDP, the Tea Party took up the cry for a balanced budget.
Today the deficit is 2.7% of GDP, exactly where the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction committee suggested it should be by 2015. As long as the economy continues to grow at or near 3% a year, the debt as a percentage of GDP will go down without any additional government spending cuts.
If the Republicans were serious about reducing the debt and balancing the budget, they would not have resorted to smoke, mirrors, and bad math. Instead this is a political document intended to appease the radical right of the party. If they did succeed in passing it, it would never survive the President’s veto. If it did somehow make it into law, Republicans themselves would fail to implement the social program cuts contained in the budget. There are too many Republican senators up for re-election in blue states in 2016.
Instead this budget was best described by conservative Republican congressman Ken Buck.
I don’t know anybody who honestly believes we’re going to balance the budget in 10 years. It’s all hooey.
There you have it – another example of how seriously Republicans take their new responsibility to govern.