Blame

October 22nd, 2012

Elections are supposed to mean something.  They should decide important issues like the balance between collectivism and individualism.  Not this one.  This one is just about power and it appears that it is going to be decided on two issues that have little to do with the big issues that this country faces.

Republicans want you to blame Obama for a slow economic recovery.

Democrats want you to punish Romney for promises that fail the “math” test.

Both are right.

The recession was worse and the recovery slower than the administration predicted.

Romney’s tax plan fails to achieve his revenue-neutral target according to latest independent Tax Policy Center analysis.  His Medicare reform also doesn’t “add up”.

Both campaigns have also been beating up the truth and not telling the whole story.

Republicans wrongly claim Obama increased the deficit and doubled the debt.  The deficit is the yearly difference between spending and income.  It has gone down 14% from 1.4T in 2009 to 1.2T in 2012.  The debt has gone up because of yearly deficits, but only 70% and the rate of growth as percentage of GDP (standard measurement) has gone down because the economy has recovered and the deficit decreased.  It is simple math.

While debt remains an important issue, austerity during time of slow economic growth increases the chances of economic recession as we’ve seen in Europe.  Getting the economy going again has to be our top priority.  Dramatic reductions in the size of government at all levels over the past two years is what has slowed this recovery.  A prudent mix of short term government growth programs while interest rates and inflation are both very low makes sense as long as we have structural changes to manage our long term debt problems.

Democrats wrongly claim their plans will solve the long-term debt problem without entitlement reform.

Republicans promise Obamacare repeal but have failed to propose a credible alternative.

Both wrongly claim that only their ideas will create jobs.

The truth is that the economy is recovering on its own.  Moody’s Analytics predicts 12M new jobs over next four years regardless of who is president.

The real problem in this election is us.

We’ve allowed ideology to trump logic and fact.   For example, how does a revenue-neutral tax change stimulate anything?  Or how does deficit-busting war spending become deficit-neutral domestic investment?

The failure to hold our candidates accountable in meaningful ways is the result of partisan media.  They have figured out how to profit by creating dissention and hatred. They cripple democracy by assassinating truth and demonizing compromise.  Democracy works best when there is room to create a middle way where both sides get a little and give a little.  That isn’t possible in today’s political climate.  Those who even entertain the possibility of compromise for the greater good are ostracized and run out of office by the partisans in their party.  What you are left with is hard-line ideologues who view compromise as tantamount to treason.  Indiana Republican Senatorial candidate Richard Murdoch summarized that point of view.

⁠”I certainly think bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view,” Mourdock declared. “If we [win the House, Senate, and White House], bipartisanship means they have to come our way, and if we’re successful in getting the numbers, we’ll work towards that.

The logic is that there is some great moral victory out there for one side or the other to win.  If they win, they get to impose their will on the other side.

The reality is that the country is fairly evenly split between two ideologies.  There is no opportunity for a great decisive victory and our political system, as we’ve seen over the past four years, provides the minority party plenty of opportunity to gum up the works and limit the ability for the majority to do what it wants.  Politicians also have long memories.  Those that find themselves abused as a minority know that at some point they are going to be back in the majority and will gleefully turn the tables on their abusers.

As a result, we get “lesser evil” elections like this one rather than real choices about the greater good.   Neither candidate can win with just the votes of their party.  They have to temper their message in an effort to attract the votes of the few remaining undecided in the middle.  Nobody ends up with the choice that they would prefer and elections get decided on small issues rather than big ones.

You want someone to blame?  Go look in the mirror.

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Empty Suit

October 8th, 2012

Romney’s latest foreign policy pronouncements continue his pattern of criticism without substance and position without difference.

Romney’s positions mirror Obama’s.  He did offer to “lead from the front”.  What that appears to mean is more military spending.  He promises to “roll back President Obama’s deep and arbitrary cuts to our national defense”.  The only cuts that fit that description are part of the sequestration “poison pill”.  That was the ransom Republicans got in return for raising the debt ceiling.  The President is using this “poison pill” exactly in the way that it was designed, to force both sides to come up with something better.  He is holding the defense department hostage in EXACTLY the same way that Tea Party House Republicans held the financial standing of the whole country hostage – but Republicans don’t like it when  the weapon they created is used on them.  So we have this fiction that the President wants to cut defense and weaken the country.  If Romney wants to sell that fiction, doesn’t he at least owe the country some explanation for where the money is going to come to make up the difference in the debt deal?

Romney’s attempt to connect the recent anti-American violence to some fundamental weakness in American policy is naive and dangerous.  The Obama administration has quietly been getting the job done.  Somali piracy contained.  Yemen training bases destroyed.  Gaddafi was overthrown.  Iran isolated and sanctions causing domestic unrest.  Al Qaeda decimated.  New democracies and reforms are emerging.

Romney feels that rhetorical swagger and simple affirmations of American Exceptionalism will dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, frighten terrorists into submission, and create loyal peaceful Arab democracies.

Bush’s simple answer to a complex world was democracy.  He equated spreading democracy with spreading peace.  He then invaded Iraq to prove his point.  The result was an Iranian nuclear program and the worldwide spread of al Qaeda.

Simple answers don’t work because they almost always ignore unintended consequences.

Now democracy is finally blossoming in the Middle East and Romney says it’s dangerous.  Punish Egypt because they elected the Muslim Brotherhood.  Arm the Syrian rebels even though al Qaeda has deeply infiltrated them.   He did say that we should only give arms to those Syrian rebels that “share our values”.  I’m curious how he is going to sort them out, or prevent a “values” rebel from handing his US rocket launcher to his al Qaeda cousin.  We went down this road once already in Afghanistan where we ended up both training and arming bin Laden and the first generation of al Qaeda.  We should try not to repeat that mistake.

Romney didn’t even mention the two biggest problems in the Middle East- an unstable nuclear Pakistan and a post-withdrawl Afghanistan.

Foreign policy is complex and young democracies need our help to peacefully grow.  Democracy is messy and it doesn’t always go the way that you want it to.  Venezuela is a perfect example.  But if we believe what we say we believe, we have to hang in there and help when we have an opportunity.

Romney has not demonstrated that he has the patience or the depth of understanding to encourage the growth of democracy.

He is looking no further than the next month.  He desperately wants to win this election and will do anything and say anything that he thinks will help him do it.

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Romney 2.0

October 7th, 2012

A liberal, moderate, and conservative walked into bar; the bartender looked up and said, “Hello Mitt”.

This new Romney showed up at the debates.  Let’s see how he compares with the old one.

Taxes
Romney 1.0 promised to cut taxes 20% across the board in order to stimulate the economy.  Romney 2.0 said everyone’s tax bills wouldn’t change.  Rate changes will be balanced by deduction reductions.  No details yet.  When pressed on how he could keep all of these promises and also reduce the deficit, Romney 2.0 said that this revenue-neutral plan would spur economic growth just like his old plan, even though this new one is putting no more money in the hands of consumers or job creators.

Healthcare Reform
Both Romneys are going to repeal Obamacare, but Romney 2.0 claimed his plan covered popular things like pre-existing conditions.  After the debate, his campaign admitted his “plan” relied on every state passing their own version of Romneycare.

Deferred Action for Illegal Aliens
Romney 2.0 said he would support the President’s action.  The next day his campaign said the real plan was to end the program if elected and only honor those deferrals issued between now and then.

Regulation
Romney 2.0 provided a full throated endorsement of financial regulation including large parts of the Dodd Frank bill which Romney 1.0 promised to repeal.   No details on potential replacements.

Medicare
Romney 1.0 wanted to reform Medicare as part of a larger effort to reduce the deficit.  Romney 2.0 says that he plans to keep Medicare unchanged for anyone who wants to use it now and into the future.  In addition he will create an alternate voucher program in hopes that everyone will move from the guaranteed program to the program where they have to take some of the risk regarding the cost of their care once they are retired.  He hasn’t provided any details on how running two competing healthcare plans will be cheaper than running one.

 47%
Romney 1.0 claimed that Obama’s policies have created a pervasive culture of dependency and entitlement that threatens the very fabric of democracy.  Romney 2.0 apologized, “I said something that’s just completely wrong.”

Truth in Advertising
Romney’s pollster said “We are not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers”.  Romney 2.0 claimed that when “any time there’s anything that’s been amiss (in our advertising), we correct it or remove it.”  When asked for examples, his campaign couldn’t produce any.

Perhaps there isn’t as much difference between Romney 1.0 and Romney 2.0 after all.

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47% Mean

September 22nd, 2012

Romney’s private rant about those who don’t pay any income tax raises some interesting questions about the exactly what the current Republican philosophy is.

The concern is fairly easy to determine based on how Romney positions his claim against Obama.  Romney feels that any government support of individuals robs those individuals of the opportunity to be successful and responsible.  He also feels that this sort of government support encourages a dependency which endangers democracy.  The logic is that if the number of “takers” grows large enough, they can vote themselves benefits that will be difficult for the “makers” who do the work and pay the taxes to supply.

There are several problems with this position.

The first is that the data doesn’t support that we are anywhere near a tipping point with regard to the number of people receiving support.  While a high percentage of households DO receive some level of government support, the nature of the recipients and the type of support tend to undermine the concern that there is some growing army of “takers” waiting in the wings.  Once you eliminate the elderly and disabled from the ranks of those receiving government supports, you’re left with approximately 9% of the households in this country receiving support.

When you also parse the number of people receiving government support, you find that a majority of them currently vote Republican (elderly and the white working poor).  So the concern that their votes have been secured by the funding that they are receiving doesn’t add up.

The next problem is that the bulk of these supports reflect INCENTIVES that previous Republican administrations put in place to encourage the poor to choose work over welfare.  By all accounts, these programs have been a success with welfare numbers dropping by 2/3 over the last two decades.

Now it appears that this thought of providing government incentives to encourage poor people to choose work over welfare has morphed into a concern that any government support of any kind produces dependency.

“Since when has it been the job of Republicans and conservatives to make sure everyone has IRS obligations?” wrote Jim Antle at the Daily Caller. He accused Romney of “[i]gnoring the rising payroll tax burden of the last few decades while dismissing many of those who have borne it as deadbeats.”

“Conservatives have even less reason for worrying about people who don’t pay federal income taxes,” wrote Ramesh Ponnuru in Bloomberg View. “A major reason that the number of those people has grown is that a Republican-controlled Congress created, and the Bush administration expanded, a tax credit for parents.”

“One thing that frustrates me,” wrote Reiham Salam in the National Review, “is that many Republicans who’ve embraced the ‘takers’ interpretation of the fact that 46% of tax units didn’t pay federal income taxes forget why Republican policymakers of the past created policies like the EITC and the child tax credit in the first place…. We need conservative politicians who are willing to explain why low-income and middle-income parents should be removed from the tax rolls during the years they are making the biggest investments in their children, and who are willing to make the case for the EITC program as an alternative to worklessness and lifelong dependency.”

For Matt Welch of the libertarian magazine Reason, the problem is that Romney’s message contradicts the pitch Republicans made to voters at the GOP convention.

“This is economic determinism at its worst, going against the very message the Republican Party was trying to sell to the world during its quadrennial national convention last month,” he wrote. “Over and over again, we heard speakers there talk about how their immigrant grandparents came to this country, worked hard, built ‘that,’ never asked for a handout, and as a result their descendants have enjoyed the American Dream of ever-upward mobility. What the 53/47 dividing line says, to the direct contrary, is that income status is a permanent political condition, defrocking all Americans of agency and independent thought…. There are to my mind many more important things to consider in this presidential race than Mitt Romney’s reductive parroting of plausible-but-wrong GOP tropes. But the reason this controversy will have legs is ultimately because many Republicans think Romney’s comments were just fine. They are about to learn what the rest of the country thinks about that.”

Latest polls show a consistent turn to Obama across the country and in particular in battleground states like Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and North Carolina.  This swing is attributed to independent voters reacting to the 47% video.

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Shady All the Time

September 14th, 2012

I had the good fortune to count the late Steve Goodman among my circle of friends. Part of the lyric of his song “Looking for Trouble” fits this particular post.

The first time you shade the truth
You want to run and hide
Your tongue gets tied
Your throat gets dry
And you start thinkin’ that maybe no one knows you lied
And now you’re shady all the time

Truth has taken a beating in this election. What’s worse, there are many who suggest that this should not only be expected, but it is the new normal. Candidates are providing voters exactly what they have asked for.

One of the telling admissions of this political cycle that supports this view came from Romney’s pollster, Neil Newhouse. In response to criticism that a series of deceitful Romney ads about welfare received, Newhouse said, “We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers.”

This raises the basic question of how important facts are in a political campaign.

One opinion is echoed by Jack Shafer of Reuters who wrote , “I suppose fact-checking would matter more to voters if they expected honesty from their politicians, but most don’t. … Voters crave rhetoric that stirs their unfact-checked hearts. As long as the deception is honest, pointing in the direction they want to go, they’re all right with it.”

This goes along with the studies of a phenomenon called “motivated reasoning”. That says that because we as humans have a built-in bias to form groups, we also develop biases which discount information that calls our beliefs into question while seeking out information which supports our beliefs. This phenomenon explains why 15% of Republicans chose Mitt Romney over “don’t know” or “Barack Obama” in a recent poll in Ohio on who should receive credit for killing bin Laden.

This is also why right wing publications like the Weekly Standard and National Review have provided readers an excuse to disregard fact-checkers by claiming that they all share the some fictitious liberal bias associated with the “mainstream” media.

Political campaign managers would much prefer an atmosphere where they are not held accountable and truth is defined in the minds of the listener rather than measured against an objective standard. “Look, when people give speeches, not every fact is always absolutely accurate,” former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani told CNN’s Piers Morgan with aw-shucks candor at the Tampa convention.

What started as a trickle with the Willie Horton distortions that brought down Dukakis and the Swift Boat attacks that tarnished Kerry’s military record, has become a veritable waterfall of propaganda and deliberate misinformation promoted primarily by the right wing media. First you had the release of Dishonorable Disclosures – an attempt to discredit Obama’s role in the killing of bin Laden. Next was 2016 Obama’s America which tries to build the case that Obama has some deep seated hatred of the United States because of slavery. Most recently we’ve had the disturbing political posturing of Mitt Romney trying to curry favor with those who dislike Obama because of the color of his skin and next reaching out to those 15% of voters who believe that Obama is sympathetic to radical Muslims because of his name.

I think that voters have a right and the media has a duty to hold politicians to a higher standard. The stakes are too high to let elections be decided on who does a better job of deceiving the public. Voters can choose to ignore those facts that make them uncomfortable, but hopefully these biased partisans on the right and left will balance each other out. Those remaining voters who approach elections with an open mind deserve a better fate. They should be able to honestly evaluate the facts and the details behind those facts before they place their votes. Otherwise we give ourselves over to a future where we are governed by those who stand to make the most money from promoting the biggest lies. That is certainly not the future contemplated by those who founded our democracy, enshrined the right to vote, protected free speech, and depended on a free press to inform the public and hold politicians accountable.

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Fact-checking the Democratic Convention

September 7th, 2012

If you take Politifact.com as any guide, the Democratic Convention that just concluded spent a lot more time discussing facts than the Republican Convention in Tampa. There were only two statements tracked by Politifact that rated a “false”. One by Delaware Governor Jack Markell who used a Romney quote out of context about firing people who provide poor healthcare as indication of how Romney would respond to a potential factory closing. The other was the claim by Rep. James Clyburn that Republicans stood on the sidelines when Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid were created. While there was vigorous debate about all three programs, a majority of Republicans supported all three in the final vote.

That said there were still issues that should be mentioned because they weren’t entirely accurate.

On the debt, Obama said, “Independent analysis shows that my plan would cut our deficits by $4 trillion. Last summer, I worked with Republicans in Congress to cut $1 trillion in spending.”

The problem with this statement is that there was no mention of the timeline on the $4T which could give the impression that the current $1T deficit would be eliminated. The facts are that a the end of the most recent 10-year budget proposal, the debt would be 76% of GDP. That represents and increase of approximately 4% of the 74% debt figure today. Simpson-Bowles, by comparison, would reduce the debt as a percentage of the GDP over the same period to 60%. The bulk of the deficit reductions comes from tax increases on the wealthy rather than spending cuts.

On a related topic, Obama also said that savings from winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be used to rebuild roads, bridges, schools and runways. The problem is that those wars were financed with “deficit” dollars. So ending those wars doesn’t magically free up money for other projects. Any infrastructure spending using the same model that funded the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will increase the deficit in the same way the wars have done.

Obama referenced trade agreements that he signed which will improve our exports. What he didn’t say is that the Bush administration negotiated those agreements. Obama still had to get those agreements through an obstructive Congress, but he can’t take full credit for the final product.

Obama implied that Romney would turn Social Security over to Wall Street. While Romney did support this position in 2008, he no longer does. Obama does get positive marks for including modest Social Security reform in his latest budget proposal.

Joe Biden and the film that aired before Obama spoke referenced an incident during Obama’s mother’s hospitalization for breast cancer. She did have a dispute with an insurance company, but it wasn’t over health benefits. It was for disability pay. So the clear line from the death of Obama’s mother to healthcare reform, is really a more complicated story than the Democrats have been telling.

Biden also repeated the line that Romney was willing to let Detroit go bankrupt. The actual WSJ opinion piece that Romney wrote didn’t say that. Only the headline, which Romney didn’t write. Romney did, however, support that headline in a TV appearance. What Romney was recommending a “managed bankruptcy” and claimed that the private sector could finance that. The Obama administration explored that concept but couldn’t find any private firms willing to participate, so the government essentially funded the managed bankruptcy and reorganization of GM and the sale of Chrysler to Fiat. They do, however, deserve credit for the results of this actio.

Biden claimed the the Romney plan would cause Medicare to go bankrupt. The inaccurate term here is “bankrupt”. The reference here was to Medicare Part A which is funded by a payroll tax paid by employees and employers. The administration negotiated a $716B savings in the ACA which would benefit this fund and extends its life well past the 2016 date. Romney wants to repeal the ACA which will eliminate this savings and shorten the life of the Medicare trust fund. The fund won’t technically go bankrupt, but if it does run low on fund, the government is going to have to respond to make up the shortfall or cut benefits.

Biden cited a new territorial tax as being part of Romney’s proposal and that it will create 800,000 overseas jobs. Romney does propose as part of his corporate tax reform initiative to exempt foreign corporate profits from domestic US taxes. The study cited by Biden does support Biden’s claim with regard to foreign employment gains, though it doesn’t specifically examine Romney’s proposal. The study does not suggest that these foreign jobs will come at the expense of US jobs.

Finally Biden claimed that Romney’s tax plan would include an effective tax increase of $2,000 for middle class families. This is based on an analysis of the Romney plan by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. Romney has claimed that his tax reductions would be revenue neutral because he would simultaneously close man tax loopholes, but he hasn’t said which ones he would close. The Tax Policy Center in their analysis said that the only way to make the math work, would be to close some tax loopholes like the deduction for mortgage interest that benefit the middle class. The Romney campaign disputes these findings but hasn’t provided an alternate explanation of how their math would work. In the absence of this explanation, Biden’s claim has to stand.

The quick summary is that the Republicans generally were significantly more fact-challenged than the Democrats and also shared far less detail about what they planned to do than the Democrats.  The Democrats did their fair share of fact stretching, but none of these compared with the many “pants on fire” lies that were core portions of the Republican convention message.

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In Search of Large Souls

September 3rd, 2012

In 1776 John Adams was concerned that the deeply divided and fragile colonial union would fracture over its petty differences and fail to fulfill the destiny that lay before it.  He wrote of his fears that the Continental Congress’ decisions would be dictated ‘by noise, not sense; by meanness, not greatness; by ignorance, not learning; by contracted hearts, not large souls.’”

Adams wrote, “There must be decency and respect and veneration introduced for persons of authority of every rank or we are undone. In popular government, this is our only way.”

Many say that this is an important moment for our democracy.  Just like 1776, we appear to be vulnerable to the same small thinking.

Here’s a quick fact-check on the past week in politics

Let’s start with the convention.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune said the Obama administration “proposed banning farm kids from doing basic chores!”  That’s a “pants on fire” lie.  What he was referring to were new safety rules proposed by the Labor Department for minors working on farms.  The only chores it would prohibit were those that were dangerous and should be done by adults.

Rob Portman, a U.S. senator from Ohio said President Obama “never even worked in business.”  That’s also false.  He did work as a research assistant for a New York company in the 80’s and was a partner in a Chicago law firm.

Paul Ryan claimed that Obama broke a promise to keep a Wisconsin GM plant from closing.  In fact Obama never made that promise and the GM plant was closed before he took office and could have intervened.  Another lie.

Ryan misrepresented Romney’s record in Massachusetts saying, “unemployment went down, household incomes went up,” and the state “saw its credit rating upgraded.”  The truth is that household incomes, when you include inflation, went down.  While unemployment went down, there is little evidence that it was the direct result of any particular Romney policy.  The state’s credit rating did go up, but it was the result of a tax increase passed before Romney took office.  His office did lobby for the credit rating improvement, but was not responsible for the policies that improved the state’s financial condition.

Ryan repeated the claim that the Obama administration “funneled” $716 billion out of the program “at the expense of the elderly” to pay for his health care law.  In fact this number came from the CBO, not the White House.  It reflects projected savings from a reduction in the GROWTH of Medicare costs.  Those savings come from a deal that the administration struck with primarily Hospitals who agreed to a reduction in Medicare re-imbursements in return for getting a higher percentage of insured non-Medicare patients under the ACA.  It took no money from existing Medicare programs.  Big lie.

Ryan claimed that “The stimulus was a case of political patronage, corporate welfare and cronyism at their worst. You, the working men and women of this country, were cut out of the deal.”  If that’s true, Ryan was in on the deal.  Ryan’s pleas to federal agencies for stimulus funds included letters to Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis seeking stimulus grant money for two Wisconsin energy conservation companies.  He ended up securing over $20M for Wisconsin companies.

Ryan claimed that “Obama “created a bipartisan debt commission. They came back with an urgent report. He thanked them, sent them on their way and then did exactly nothing.”  What he neglected to say was that he was part of that commission and voted against the final report.

Gov. Christie said, “Mitt Romney will tell us the hard truths we need to hear to end the torrent of debt that is compromising our future and burying our economy. … Tonight, our duty is to tell the American people the truth. Our problems are big and the solutions will not be painless. We all must share in the sacrifice. Any leader that tells us differently is simply not telling the truth.”

The reality is that Romney has promised to cut $500 billion per year from the federal budget by 2016 to bring spending below 20 percent of the U.S. economy, and to balance it entirely by 2020, but the math on what he has proposed so far doesn’t add up.  There are none of the “hard truths” Christie referenced.  Instead there has been a lot of political pandering.  The promised repeal of the Affordable Care Act will add $100B to the deficit according to the CBO.  He will decline to implement that Hospital Medicare cost reduction deal worth $716B.  He has also proposed increased military spending and decreased taxes without any specific plan to pay for either.  Since he has also pledged not to touch Social Security or Medicare, there just isn’t enough money left in the rest of the budget to fulfill his promises.

Senator Rob Portman leaned on his foreign policy expertise in criticizing Obama on his China policy.  “China manipulates its currency, giving it an unfair trade advantage. So why doesn’t the president do something about it? I’ll tell you one reason. President Obama could not run up his record trillion-dollar deficits if the Chinese didn’t buy our bonds to finance them. Folks, we are as beholden to China for bonds as we are to the Middle East for oil. This will end under Mitt Romney.”

What he didn’t say is that he was the ambassador to China in the Obama administration during a time when imports increased 25%.  During the same time the deficit increased only 10%.  He also failed to mention that both Bush and Obama have opened unfair trade practice cases against China with the World Trade Organization.  Finally he didn’t say what Romney would do that is any different than what Bush or Obama have done in their attempts to rebalance the relationship with China.

Former Senator Rick Santorum dragged out Romney’s welfare claim saying “This summer (Obama) showed us once again he believes in government handouts and dependency by waiving the work requirement for welfare. Now, I helped write the welfare reform bill. We made a lot crystal clear. No president can waive the work requirement, but as with his refusal to enforce our immigration laws, President Obama rules like he is above the law.”

The facts are that the administration did not waive a work requirement. Instead, it invited governors to apply on behalf of their states for waivers of administrative requirements in the 1996 law. Some states have complained those rules tie up caseworkers who could be helping clients directly.

In a July 18 letter to congressional leaders, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said that to be eligible for a waiver, governors must commit that their plans will move at least 20 percent more people from welfare to work. Moreover, states must show clear progress toward the goal within a year, or lose the waiver.  Big Lie.

Up next fact checking the movies.

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False Witness

August 31st, 2012

“You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.” Exodus 20:16

“There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers.” Proverbs 6:16-19

The Bible is pretty clear about lying.  It’s the eighth commandment.  Proverbs classifies those who lie and sow discord as “an abomination”.  Those who like to cite Bible verses about homosexuality place a lot of weight on the use of the word “abomination”.  Even Jesus, when asked by the rich man which commandments he should follow included the prohibition against lying.

I know that Mormons use both the old and new testament too.  So I’m also sure that Mitt Romney is familiar with the concept of false witness.  That makes the most recent turns of his campaign that much more distressing because they indicate that this man who claims to be a devout Mormon is either delusional or deeply cynical regarding the practice of his religion.

The Romney campaign has been running a  series of ads claiming that President Obama is gutting welfare.

These ads have been widely criticized as inaccurate and race-baiting.  It has been universally condemned by the fact finders.  Politifact gave it their worse rating, “Pants on Fire”.  The Washington Post gave it four Pinocchio’sFactcheck.org concurred.  All of the major newspapers echoed the fact-checkers.

The Romney campaign, however, seems undeterred.

“Our most effective ad is our welfare ad,” a top television advertising strategist for Romney, Ashley O’Connor, said at a forum Tuesday hosted by ABCNews and Yahoo! News. “It’s new information.”

“Fact checkers come to this with their own sets of thoughts and beliefs, and we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers,” Romney Pollster Neil Newhouse said.

In other words, we don’t care whether our ads are factually accurate.  All we care about is how people respond to our ads.  This ad convinces more people to vote for Mitt Romney than any other ad that we have.  So we are going to continue to make this claim even though it has no basis in fact.

Further, we aren’t going to let ourselves be limited in any way by any other claims that we make. We are going to say and do whatever is required to get elected and we really don’t care what the consequences are for our actions.  If inflaming old racial stereotypes is what we need to do to drive more of our voters to the polls in November, we are going to do it.  This is a no holds barred campaign and we are in it to win it.

The big difference here is when the Kerry campaign suffered a similar fate; the perpetrator of the Big Lie was an independent group supposedly unconnected to the Bush campaign.  This Romney ad is not some PAC or other interest group shredding the truth. These ads are running with Mitt Romney’s personal endorsement.

The first question is why they think they can get away with this tactic and not suffer some consequence from voters?

The second is what the long term implications are if these sorts of political tactics are successful?

There are certainly the rationalizations that the right wing echo chamber have been making that the Romney campaign can use to justify their actions.  The Obama campaign has also been telling lies, but that’s not really the question.  The “Romney killed my wife” Obama ads were the product of a PAC.  Because of the public outcry including the fact checkers, those ads never did actually run.  If the Romney campaign took a similar stance on their “welfare” ads, they would defend their position but stop making the assertion and move on as the Obama campaign did.  In this case, the Romney campaign’s primary defense is that they aren’t going to stop running an effective ad even though it is inaccurate.

The Romney campaign thinks they can get away with this because Republicans have developed three effective strategies to minimize the impact of fact-checkers.

The first is the basic tenant of Big Lie politics.  That is to repeat your lie louder and more often than those objecting to it.  Eventually the lie drowns out the truth.  If you have the money and the determination, this tactic has already been proven effective in past campaigns.  Willy Horton and Swift Boat are just two examples.  There are mountains of campaign cash flowing into the Romney campaign and the shadowy unregulated semi-independent PACs supporting his campaign.  So the Romney campaign has the means to mount a sustained effort to establish their lie as the truth.

The second is the ongoing Republican campaign to discredit the mainstream media.  This has created distrust among conservative voters of anything in the mainstream media that contradicts their views or the views of their candidates.  Evidence of this is the Romney campaign’s suggestion that, “Fact checkers come to this with their own sets of thoughts and beliefs.”  This is code for the claim that the fact checkers share the same liberal bias as the mainstream media.  One need look no further than the dust ups that Politifact.com has had with MSNBC and the Obama campaign to appreciate that these organizations are committed to holding ALL politicians and parties accountable to the truth.

The third is the conservative media who make huge amounts of money repeating right wing talking points and supporting conservative candidates.  They both spread the lie and create doubt about any sources who suggest the lie has no basis in fact.  Rush Limbaugh said, “But I have no reason to lie to you about any of this, and there’s nothing in it for me to be wrong.  It does not help me to be wrong about any of this.  There aren’t any lies in the Romney welfare reform ad.”  The next day he accused Obama administration of exerting undue influence on the government’s Hurricane Center’s prediction models in hopes of disrupting the Republican Convention.  Rush clearly has this figured out since his act generates somewhere north of $40M/year for him.

The result is a parallel Republican universe where anything is free game, pollsters and pundits can create whatever claim they feel will best advance their agenda, and where fact-checkers are irrelevant.

The implications for democracy are dire.  Democracy depends on informed debate and compromise.  We have elections (rather than civil wars) to decide those particularly troublesome issues where compromise fails.  We also have the balance of law and the judiciary to protect minority rights from being trampled by the majority.

Without a shared set of facts, you can’t have productive debates or effective compromise.  Instead ideology is allowed to trump reality and demonize compromise.  When that happens, we leave ourselves open to demagogues.  To quote Robert Reich, “A society without trusted arbiters of what is true and what is false is vulnerable to every lie imaginable.”

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Crazy Train

August 26th, 2012

This has been a remarkable week for exposing the crazy side of conservative Republicanism.

Women’s Issues
Suburban women were a significant part of Obama’s winning coalition in 2008 and were also the reason why so many Tea Party Congressmen were elected in 2010.  So how are the Republicans doing with this particular voting block this year?

Look no further than Todd Akin the tea-party backed Congressman running against Clare McCaskill in the Missouri senate race.  He referenced a loony theory created by Dr. Jack C. Willke, the father of the antiabortion movement, that pregnancy from rape is rare.  This theory is important to the pro-life movement because it allows them to argue that the current exclusions of rape from abortion bans are unnecessary.  Not only is this whole concept deeply offensive to women across the political spectrum, but the theory has no basis in fact.

It has also shined a light on Paul Ryan’s record regarding women’s rights.  Ryan and Akin co-sponsored a bill which attempted to introduce this concept of “legitimate rape”.  Ryan’s 100% rating from the National Right to Life Committee is the result of his support for the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act, the Unborn Victims of Violence Act, and the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act.  Ryan and Akin were also co-sponsors of the Sanctity of Human Life Act which sought to give a fertilized egg the same rights of “personhood” as a human being and would not only ban all abortions but outlaw some forms of birth control.

Ryan has said he will support the Romney position of allowing abortions in the case of rape, incest, or threat to the life of the mother.  Some women are already wondering what would happen if Romney were elected and then could no longer serve?

Climate Change
We are going through the worst drought in 60 years which deeply affects famers.  New scientific studies are released almost every week attributing this drought specifically to climate change caused by human activities.  Yet, John Shimkus of Illinois who heads the house subcommittee on climate change says there is nothing to worry about.  “The earth will end only when God declares it to be over,” he said, and then he went on to quote Genesis at some length.

John Barton is on the same committee.  He’s the one who among other things apologized to BP because he felt the Obama administration was being too demanding following the gulf oil spill.  Barton cited the Almighty in questioning energy from wind turbines.  Careful, he warned, “wind is God’s way of balancing heat.”  Clean energy, he said, “would slow the winds down” and thus could make it hotter.  “You can’t regulate God!” Barton barked at the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in the midst of discussion on measures to curb global warming.

Michele Bachmann and Jim Inhofe claim that global warming is a hoax.  Mr. Inhofe is a senior member on the Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works.

Romney’s energy plan calls for increased oil drilling and relaxation of EPA regulations on the use of coal.  He promises North American energy independence by 2020 (assuming Canada still likes us by then).  He depends on a study by the Citigroup for his data but ignores the portion of the study which also recommends dramatic increases in conservation standards in order to achieve energy independence.

Finally Romney also promises freedom from foreign oil and cheaper gas.  As long as oil is a globally traded commodity, he can’t deliver on either of these promises unless he is willing to restrict domestic oil exports.  He’s said he won’t do that.  So though the US balance of trade may improve when the US becomes a net oil exporter, prices will still fluctuate based on international events that could affect supply, and we will still be burning foreign oil.

Education
Jack Kingston of Georgia, a 20-year veteran of the House, is an evolution denier, apparently because he can’t see the indent where his ancestors’ monkey tail used to be. “Where’s the missing link?” he said in 2011. “I just want to know what it is.” He serves on a committee that oversees education.

Romney has taken the position that college students don’t need the loan supports they currently receive.  His advice to a college student asking about how they are going to afford the costs of college is that they shop around for a cheaper college or borrow the money from parents and relatives.

Taxes
Romney does not want this election to turn on whether or not he releases his tax returns.  However he continues to assist the Democrats in keeping this issue in the news.  The latest evidence of this is from a talk he gave recently to a small business group.

“We’ve got to make it easier for small businesses,” Romney told a crowd of about 300 people at a high-dollar fundraiser in Minnesota. “Big business is doing fine in many places -they get the loans they need, they can deal with all the regulation. They know how to find ways to get through the tax code, save money by putting various things in the places where there are low tax havens around the world for their businesses. But small business is getting crushed.”

So not only did he echo Obama’s remark regarding the private sector, and effectively take that off the table as a future talking point for his campaign, but one of his recommendation for helping small business appeared to be easier access to tax havens.  This remark came on the heels of several reports on Bain’s practice of setting up tax havens for their customers and additional analysis of Romney’s public returns suggesting extensive use of off-shore accounts to avoid US taxes.

Budget
Romney has promised to balance the budget, but recently he also said he was going to add back $700B in Medicare spending which the Obama administration had listed as cost savings in the Affordable Care Act.  This $700B, as many have already pointed out, is coming from reduced re-imbursements primarily to hospitals who have agreed to the cuts in return for seeing a reduction in their costs for caring for the uninsured.  The other major source of that reduction comes from reducing the rates paid to insurance companies for the Medicare Advantage coverage since the Affordable Care Act also addresses many of the gaps in Medicare coverage that the Medicare Advantage plans filled.  I’ll address the whole Medicare issue in another more detailed post.  But Romney also hasn’t said how he hopes to pay for this additional $700B in spending and still keep his promise to balance the budget and reduce the deficit.  His math didn’t work before.  It has only gotten worse.

Birtherism
Romney has said that he doesn’t dispute Obama’s citizenship.  At the same time, he met with Donald Trump during the primaries and recently made a joke about his own citizenship in a talk in Michigan where he said “no one ever asked to see my birth certificate”.

Welfare
Romney’s claim that the Obama administration is dismantling welfare work requirements has been widely criticized as a thinly veiled bit a race-baiting.  It is factually inaccurate because if anything, the states requesting waivers of the current work rules were attempting to put MORE people to work rather than less.  Instead it was an appeal to the portion of the Republican base who distrust an African American President and the motivation of the African Americans who support him.

Conclusion
There are a couple of things going on here.

There is a segment of the Republican party that hold beliefs well outside mainstream America.  34% of conservative Republicans believe Obama is a Muslim.  51% doubt his citizenship.  50% feel that he is a socialist.  You can see that extremism in the Republican platform which includes a pledge to pass a constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion without exception.  It includes the construction of a giant wall along the US border with Mexico, mandatory use of electronic verification by private employers, no support for a path to citizenship, the blocking of funds to universities offering in-state tuition fees to the undocumented, and an end to federal lawsuits against controversial anti-immigrant legislation such as Arizona’s SB1070.  There’s even language suggesting an annual audit of the Federal Reserve and a “gold commission” to investigate return to the gold standard.

Romney’s strategy to become President has shifted over the last month.  Some pundits say that his selection of Ryan had much more to do with needing to put Wisconsin in play than it did anything else.  That’s because many say that Romney can’t win Ohio.  Romney has to win one of the rust belt states to have any hope of a November victory and he was willing to put Florida at risk because of Ryan’s unpopular Medicare proposals in order to improve his chances in Wisconsin.

The other shift in Romney’s strategy is that he has refocused his attention on his base.  Selecting Ryan made it more difficult for him to win women, but it did guarantee a vigorous attack from Democrats.  That attack and Romney’s recent statements on energy, welfare, and birtherism all indicate that the focus of the rest of his campaign is going to be on turning out the Republican base.  He wants every Republican voter (including those with loony beliefs) so energized that they will be first in line when the polls open.  The added benefit is that a divisive campaign not only gets his base to the polls but also suppresses the less partisan undecided voters who may decide to just stay home because they are so disgusted with the whole process.

This scorched earth strategy  may work to get him elected.

It won’t leave much room for him to govern if he is successful.

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The Return of the Taxman

August 17th, 2012

Among other things I was a wrestler in school.  One of the things that you learn in wrestling is that there is a counter for virtually every move.  So wrestling ends up being much more about desire, conditioning, and who makes the fewest mistakes rather than who is the strongest.

There was an example of this on the campaign trail this week.

The Romney campaign successfully turned the conversation from tax returns to Medicare by selecting Paul Ryan as their VP candidate.  The Obama campaign immediately pounced on that selection by pointing out that Ryan had proposed turning Medicare into a voucher program.  This produced a whole set of back and forth about Medicare which I will cover in another post.  Whether or not this was working for Romney, he clearly appeared to have regained some footing and was at least engaging the Obama campaign in a substantive debate about the future of Medicare.

Then out of the blue Romney finally responded to Senator Harry Reid’s claim that he hadn’t paid taxes in ten years.  Romney’s response was that he has paid at least 13% in taxes for the past ten years.  This response came six weeks after Reid’s original claim on the floor of the Senate.

During the past six weeks, the Romney campaign called Reid a liar.  They said they weren’t going to release additional returns because those returns would only result in the Democrats asking for more returns and the whole campaign would become a discussion about personal taxes rather than the economy which is what Romney REALLY wants to talk about.

So why say anything more, particularly after this long delay?  The delay in itself further re-enforces the claim, whether true or not, that Romney has something to hide because virtually every taxpayer remembers at least in general numbers how much they paid in taxes.  So why did it take him six weeks to confirm that he didn’t have a year where his taxes dipped below the 13% threshold?  Is he really that disconnected from the process of paying his taxes?

The Obama campaign, just like a good wrestler, responded quickly with their counter.  They offered Romney a deal.  Just release three more years of tax returns which, in addition to the two years of returns that Romney has already promised to release, would comprise five years.  In return the Obama campaign said they would not request any further information and they would step criticizing the Romney campaign on this issue.

The Romney campaign rejected that offer almost immediately.  That rejection allowed the Obama campaign to ask all of the same questions again that they had been asking the past six weeks.  In addition the rejection of what many would regard as a reasonable compromise reinforces another claim the Obama campaign has been making that Obama has tried to compromise but these Republicans at least are so ideological that they can’t make a deal.  This plays into one of the major issues that I posted about with swing voters – the desire for both parties to figure out how to work together.

The Obama campaign is right back where they want to be questioning what Romney has to hide and the Romney campaign is right back in the same place they were before they announced Paul Ryan as their VP pick.  They are defending their candidate’s decision to withhold information that a majority of the American people say they are interested in.

The Romney campaign in their rejection said, “It is clear that President Obama wants nothing more than to talk about Governor Romney’s tax returns instead of the issues that matter to voters, like putting Americans back to work, fixing the economy and reining in spending.”  This is the same thing that they have been saying for the past six weeks, but now they are the ones responsible, at least in the mind of some voters, for the campaign being stuck on this issue.

The Romney campaign is correct about the Obama campaign, but wrong about what voters want.  Obama continues to push this issue because it is working for him, particularly with swing voters in battleground states.  It cuts to the core of whether or not this guy can be trusted, and Obama is winning this argument.

Romney said, “As long as I continue to speak about the economy, I’m going to win.”  This week, he failed to talk only about the economy and he lost.

 

 

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