Presidential politics - a non-prediction
I rarely make predictions. Sports and politics, by their nature, are volatile. But here’s a non-prediction.
I’ve been struck in recent days by the continued attention that the big three presidential candidates in each party receive from the media - to the exclusion of everyone else.
From the beginning of the campaigns, months ago, I have been doubtful that any of the six can win the presidency. All six have flaws that seem to be too much to overcome - iron necklaces that will pull them down during the long months of mud-slinging that are inevitable.
- Hillary Clinton has Bill. While some Democrats still love him, and he certainly would be an interesting first gentleman, Mr. Clinton carries enough baggage to fill a sem-truck.
- John Edwards is a liberal trial lawyer. Americans love to hate lawyers. My son is in law school, and I love him dearly, but he made his decision knowing that he’ll be the butt of many jokes.
- Barrack Obama has both race and inexperience to overcome. One or the other might be possible, but not both. Maybe in four or eight years.
- John McCain has the war. It’s too unpopular, and the situation isn’t likely to change in the next 17 months.
- Rudy Guliani has personal moral issues in his past. After living through eight years of Bill Clinton, Americans aren’t likely to elect another philanderer.
- Mitt Romney has the Mormon religion. Americans don’t understand it, and fear of the unknown is difficult to overcome.
All six are good people. All six, in my view, could be good presidents. But I just don’t see them as the next president.
So, who does that leave. I have no idea. Someone from one or both parties will emerge from the pack in the next few months, so they can compete in the first primaries. When they show they are legitimate candidates in the early primaries, they’ll quickly rise to the surface.
How many people had heard of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton 17 months before the election?