Time to eat crow and move on
I might as well eat crow now rather than later.
I began a blog post eight months ago by noting that I rarely make predictions. I should have taken my own advice.
I didn’t though, going on to predict that none of the leading six candidates in June of 2007 would eventually be elected president in 2007.
My reasoning was that all six - Democrats Hillary Clinton, Barrack Obama and John Edwards and Republicans John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Guliani - were critically flawed in some way that would eventually derail their campaigns.
Okay, now we’re approaching Super Tuesday in February of 2008 and there appear to be only four candidates left with a chance of winning the election - Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney.
I still have a hard time imagining the American electorate choosing Clinton (because of Bill), Obama (because of his race and experience), McCain (because of Iraq) or Romney (because of religion). But even though each is dragging an iron weight behind them, it now appears that one of them will make it to the White House.
Of course, there’s still Michael Bloomberg. But he’s a very long shot as an independent candidate even if he tries - and he maintains he will not.
So I’m ready to admit I was wrong. While several tried in both parties, no shining knight candidates have emerged from the fringes.
One thing is tantalizing about the four candidates that remain. Whether it’s Obama against McCain, or Romney vs. Clinton, or some other combination, the presidential race will be historic.
January 31st, 2008 at 5:52 pm
historic in that we hae no candidate!! you were correct awhile ago
in that there wasn’t one. you are still corret today. i thinks it’s more a case of “somebody HAS to win”, as everyone can’t lose.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:38 am
Don’t feel bad. I picked Newt Gingrich to be the Republican nominee on my blog at the end of last summer. Not going to happen.
But I also picked Hillary on the Democrat Party side. That one is about a 55/45 pick right now.
I’ll be watching the third-party candidates big-time this year. McCain could alienate traditional conservatives this year. Does the Constitution Party candidate get 3%? Ron Paul could run as an independent and siphon 4 or 5% of the Republican vote. Bloomberg could run and take 5% of the Democrats. Where do the Obama voters go if Hillary wins the nomination? Does Ralph Nader run again and pick up some of that support?
I have a feeling that a third party candidate might throw the election this year.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:14 am
Your third-party comments are right on. Each of the four remaining candidates are unsatisfactory to a chunk of their party’s traditional base. It will be very tempting for several “niches” in both parties to abandon their party’s nominee.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:20 am
The other aspect of this is the incredible amount of time that *could* be left between the effective end of the primary races and the November election. It is possible, although not likely, that we could have effective nominees by this Tuesday. But even if it’s sometime in March, that’s still nine months.
That is an incredible amount of time. What happens if Iraq turns sour again? What if a terrorist attack happens? What about if the economy completely tanks?
Nine months is enough time for everyone to get completely tired of both candidates. And it is certainly enough time for an alternative to get organized and raise a whole bunch of internet money.