I picked up the sign above at a Democratic Party fundraiser at the Firefly Club in Ann Arbor during the last presidential election. Most of the Ann Arbor Dems looked at me with curiosity. They were from the progressive/liberal wing of the party and couldn’t completely understand the pro-life and pro-defense Democrat in their midst. They just couldn’t understand that gun ownership might be a positive thing. And, of course, they couldn’t understand how absolutely ridiculous the “Sportsmen for Kerry” sign really was. John Kerry was and is a lot of things. But he certainly wasn’t the social conservative that the ad tries to portray.

And this brings me to my political question of the day: Can Monroe Democrats and Ann Arbor Democrats stay together?

The modern, computerized gerrymandering process has already made both groups uneasy partners in the Congressional district of John Dingell. But can they stay together?

There are some interesting political variables at play in this question. Foremost among these is the War in Iraq. Ann Arbor Democrats are strongly anti-war. Most would probably argue for an immediate pullout. My feeling is that Monroe and Lenawee County Democrats are a bit more wary. Most probably wish we had never invaded, but now that we’re there, it’s not so simple to just leave.

The Joe Lieberman/Ned Lamont Senate race provides a cautionary note. While anti-war sentiment was enough to turn the Democratic Primary for Ned Lamont, it wasn’t enough to shift the entire electorate. The strongly anti-war Lamont lost. Could the same kind of dynamic play itself out in the 2008 presidential election and give the election to the Republicans?

If so, it would be a tremendously squandered opportunity for Democrats. The Republican Party has built a 30-year movement on a three-legged stool of tax cuts, abortion and national defense. The Republicans have been so woeful in running the Iraq policy that national defense is now in play for the Democrats.

So, it would be in the Democratic Party’s best interests to think beyond the Iraq War for a moment. The Iraq War is what it is. It may not matter what position any politician takes on Iraq. It may just be a failed policy. Once the smoke clears on Iraq, my feeling is that Americans will still want a strong defense. A Democratic Party built on an Iraqi retreat might be strong in the immediate future, but it might be exactly the opposite of what Americans want over the longer term.

And this is where the Ann Arbor/Monroe cultural split comes into play. There will be an enormous push by the Ann Arbor wing of the party to field an anti-war Democrat in 2008. We see this already as candidates like John Edwards stake out anti-war positions. Would Ann Arbor Dems stand for a slightly hawkish Democrat like Hillary Clinton? And would they support an Iraq War moderate Democratic nominee in the general election?

That is the question, isn’t it? It’s my hope that a hawkish Hillary Clinton - or someone similarly positioned - wins the presidency and moves to steal national defense from the Republicans. And if the Supreme Court eventually overturns Roe vs. Wade and throws abortion policy to the states, the Democratic Party could begin to build its own 30 year stool.

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