A paper recently published by the American Geophysical Union stated: “Using short term trends that show little temperature change or even slight cooling to refute global warming is misleading…especially as the long-term pattern clearly shows human activities are causing the earth’s climate to heat up.”
The article went on to say:
In their paper “Is the climate warming or cooling?” David R. Easterling of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center and Michael Wehner of the Computational Research Division at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory note that a number of publications, websites and blogs often cite decade-long climate trends, such as that from 1998-2008, in which the earth’s average temperature actually dropped slightly, as evidence that the global climate is actually cooling.
The climate expert’s paper was “carefully reviewed by other researchers and scientifically defensible.” The climate is variable, and even though our overall climate is getting warmer, we “can’t expect it to do so in a monotonic way – or that each year will be warmer than the preceding year.”
Real climate scientists are looking at trends over thousands of years and basically ignore decade long cooling periods because they mean very little in the big picture. However, the experts say that these are precisely the short term trends critics like to “cherry pick” to influence segments of the general public into believing for instance that a decade of cooling in a particular area is evidence against human-induced climate change.
The research was funded by the DOE Office of Science’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research through its Climate Change Prediction Program.
Read the whole article:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090504141047.htm.
What exactly is short term? as in the last 10 years? 20 years before that it was a different story. I can remember taking the sled loaded with the generator through drifts in ‘78 so the neighbors could start it for me, as I was only in 6th grade, then hauling the thing back to plug in while dad was snowed in at the plant. They were calling it the next ice age back then. So now those same people are saying instead of “global warming” its called “climate change”….sounds fishy
If you were referring to me, your trolling friend, as someone who is cherry picking short term trends to disprove global warming, I am not. Your post says that scientists ignor sort periods of time when cooling occurs, even decades. that they study longer term trends. If that is so I still need two points cleared up.
#1 If were are studing long term trends over thousands of years. please discuss at least one way human activity influenced global warming in the years 1271 – 1412…. My point to you many times was your side is guilty of this short term ternding as they are only influenced by the time period of 1900 – 1998. So if you are saying that this is based on studay of thousands of years then human activity should be pinpointed in centries past that lead to warming.
#2 your recent post claimed that Co2 emiisions = global warming. we’ve emitted more in 2009 then we did in 1998. so why a colling. if great Co2 = higher temps…something seems out of fact. using the scientific method. you would first make the observation….release of Co2 make for warmer temps. then you would formulate a hypothisis, you would then test that hypothisis by means of testing and also using controlled testing. you would then study the data collected, then form a conclusion. to become a scientific fact, it would need to happen everytime. in this case more Co2 has been released then previously. the observation that more Co2 creates warmer temps was not supported by the data, 1998 – today temps have cool…so the conclusion is the observation that greater amounts of Co2 will create more “global warming” is proven false. if it were true then temps would be higher today then they were…
hope this helps you at least understand the opposing point of view. also do you see why al gore’s comment “the debate is over” was offensive and intellectually dishonest?
All your side has is a “consenious” that this is occuring but unfortunately not supported by the scientific method.
Mason, they may have been calling it the Ice Age back then but was it? There was no climate consortium back then. This is a whole new ballgame where experts in many different areas like oceans, air, ecosystems, are finally conferring on one big overall picture. Besides 78 was a freak. I was riding a snowmobile up and down S. Custer Rd. So what? Was it like that the following winter? NO. In the last decade I can remember sitting on my front porch listening to frogs in the ditch across the street on December 18th. All I had on that night was a sweatshirt. That was a short winter. This crummy summer reminds me of the summer of 93 when I got laid off and then summer was like this. Nothing bloomed because there was hardly any sun that summer. And not too many winters ago it started snowing in October. That’s when winter actually began. Is it getting colder and colder every year everywhere? No. That’s the point of the article. The weather goes up and down over short periods of time regionally while overall world temps do increase. We don’t notice the overall temps but mainly those in our regions, which roller coaster. The winter of 2007 there was a lot of sun and I didn’t suffer the bills I suffered last winter, which was much more bleak. Some scientists suggest that the weather warms and cools in 30 year increments since the Little Ice Age. That’s following temps over hundreds of years. The latest studies went back 70,000 years.
So short periods can be quite long in the context of 70,000 years. And all I know is that I used to worship the sun but can’t stand it on my eyes or skin anymore. I’m dark skinned and even though the breeze might be cool and it says it’s only 77 degrees outside that sun fries me in about 5 minutes. I can’t stand the sun beating down on my jeans in the car any longer. It’s much more intense on the eyes and burns quicker. And that
you”ll get no where with out the scientific method being met. what are you ignoring it along with everyone else on your side. science is nothing with out it.
It’s people like you Matt, the naysayers of global warming that don’t believe anything unless it gets upfront and personal. Well, global warming is in our face Matt. The increase of storms, lightening strikes, tornadoes, hurricanes, monsoons, high winds, earthquakes and temperatures that are abnormal are all the results of global warming. SKIN CANCER for crying out loud! 20 years ago, skin cancer was rare. Today it is common place – why? A compromised ozone Matt. I don’t need a hypothesis or test group to tell or show me what I can see and feel. I do need a good dermatologist to keep the cancer at the basil cell level. I lived in Hawaii for almost 5 years in the late 60’s early 70’s and I was outside every second of daylight – usually in the water at the beach. All I did was get more tanned. Today, if I am outside for 10 minutes without sunscreen, I turn into a giant hive. I’m allergic to the sun Matt. Why wasn’t I 30 years ago? Science is only as good as the scientist who does the testing and the hypothesis that is being tested. I work with over 200 scientists that do nothing but testing and trust me, they are the craziest and most unstable group of people I have ever worked with. I don’t need a study or test data to show me that the earth is dying. I’m sorry that you do.
Luella,
Your think is evidence of the problem with a majority of the global warming people, your history only goes as far back as your life time.
You lived in Hawaii for five years, in the sun all the time and only got more tan. Today you are a collection of skin cancer. Then you were young…today you are old. My neices and nephews are in the sun ALL the time…..no cancer on them. I am 47 and still go in the sun…a few dots now. WE”RE older.
You said increase in storms, lightening srtikes, tornados, etc are a result of global warm…I’d ask you increased as comparison to what? your childhood? get my point. Did look at the history of warmest days on record. Which barely go back 100 year, and you’ll find warmer temps are all over the place.
Your gut reaction of “it’s worse now then when i was a kid” is the problem, not global warming. It’s stopped in the last ten years by the way…also the sum total of the warming was less then 1 degree over 100 years. ha!! more co2 is being released today then in 1998 so is co2 is the problem then way the cooling.
the eather is xxx,xxx,xxx,xxx???years old. we’ve measured temps, and not accurately i might add, for 100 or so. its like telling the temps changing because from 11:59pm – 12:00am the temp dropped 1 degree as a cold front moved in. then tell us we are “cooling” with no regard or even knowledge of the 23:59 mis of the rest of the day. and you want to make that time frame even smaller by taking about what is was like in your childhood.
Ria….Luella is the poster child for my agruements…I’d throw all your “proof” starting will al gore in the same group as her.
I’ve got a blog coming up that explains the scientific method, something you don’t seem to get.
http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_scientific_method.shtml
I don’t think I got it wrong…..here it is if you’d like to see it. If global warming were really happening it would pass this test. It doesn’t as it’s colling and more CO2 is being emitted now then previously. So, if great CO2 means warming then it would be warmer still with great CO2 emissions
I’m suprise you have no defense for my remarks about Luella’s comments.
Also, I love to hear you comment regarding my post of it being political. If it weren’t we’d be building Nuclear plants today as everyone agrees that this would greatly reduce CO2 emissions by replacing coal plants. Coal plants as you know are responsible for a lot of the emissions.
its the same story people freaking out over nothing more than BS
climate change is constantly going up and down ,
even though popular belief dictates that we are in “global warming “its total crap.
Just another way to scare people into spending more money , carbon tax
green resources etc … its all scare tactics and politics ;
to allow the government more ways to place its hands in your pockets.