Watch Charlie Gibson on ABC World News Tonight, Channel 7 Detroit, July 29, 09, at 6:30pm. He will be reporting on the recent record droughts and how they affect us all.
Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category
Watch ABC World News Tonight; How Drought Affects All of Us
Wednesday, July 29th, 2009The Scientific Method and Global Warming
Thursday, July 23rd, 2009I’ve listed definitions of the scientific method from 5 different sources as follows:
A method of investigation involving observation and theory to test scientific hypotheses
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn
A method of discovering knowledge about the natural world based in making falsifiable predictions (hypotheses), testing them empirically, and developing peer-reviewed theories that best explain the known data
en.wiktionary.org/wiki/scientific_method
Systematic approach of observation, hypothesis formation, hypothesis testing and hypothesis evaluation that forms the basis for modern science.www.emc.maricopa.edu/faculty/farabee/BIOBK/BioBookglossS.html
The set of rules used to guide science, based on the idea that scientific “laws” be continuously tested, and replaced if found inadequate.
chandra.harvard.edu/resources/glossaryS.html
A process that is the basis for scientific inquiry. The scientific method follows a series of steps: (1) identify a problem you would like to solve, (2) formulate a hypothesis, (3) test the hypothesis, (4) collect and analyze the data, (5) make conclusions.
www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/res-glossary.html
I was a little surprised by what I read. I remembered scientific method in a more strict sense. But scientific method is a heck of a lot of observation with conclusions that become more and more fine tuned as more and more is observed. Relative to global warming, reports will change either for the better or worse as more data is collected. Observation is the first step of the scientific method.
The second step in most of these definitions is the need to test a hypothesis. I thought I’d better refresh my memory on that one too. The definition of hypothesis: A hypothesis (from Greek ὑπόθεσις [iˈpoθesis]) consists either of a suggested explanation for an observable phenomenon or of a reasoned proposal predicting a possible causal correlation among multiple phenomena. The term derives from the Greek, hypotithenai meaning “to put under” or “to suppose.”
There is also the phrase empirical testing. Hmmm looked that one up too and it seems the word empirical gets confused with experimental more often than not. According to Wikipedia: “Empirical method is generally taken to mean the collection of data on which to base a theory or derive a conclusion in science. It is part of the scientific method, but is often mistakenly assumed to be synonymous with the experimental method where data are derived from the systematic manipulation of variables in an experiment.” I know we’re talking reliable sources here and encyclopedias aren’t considered reliable sources because they constantly change and are updated, but this is just for definition sake.
Finally there is the term “theory.” A theory, in the scientific sense of the word, is an analytic structure designed to explain a set of empirical observations. A scientific theory does two things:
1. it identifies this set of distinct observations as a class of phenomena, and
2. makes assertions about the underlying reality that brings about or affects this class.
Our climate scientists have clearly been using scientific methods for global warming predictions. For instance:
Identify a problem to be solved: Global warming. The most commonly cited indication of global warming is the trend for globally averaged temperature near the Earth’s surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the period 1906-2005. The rate of warming over the last 50 years of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.
Formulate a hypothesis: Global warming has doubled over the last 50 years of the decade. It may be due to industrialization and the pollutants big industry produces, as well as population growth and loss of forest areas. But what exact pollutant has an affect on massive warming trends? CO2 and methane were found in ice core samples dating back thousands of years to the first Ice Age. There is a need to test the hypothesis that rising amounts of CO2 cause rising global temperatures.
Employ the empirical method to test the hypothesis: Data collection begins for changes in air, the earth, the oceans, and ecosystems on which to base a theory or derive a conclusion that an overabundance of CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels for industry and transportation is causing a rapid rise in global warming compared to the earlier part of the century. This is the climate model most skeptics claim is faulty. This empirical method is, however, part of the scientific method. Perhaps the skeptics confuse empirical with experimental too.
Even though the scientific method does not include the experimental method, global warming scientists have accomplished that also. In my blog, “New Findings Show Relative Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Global Warming,” http://www.blogsmonroe.com/world/2009/07/new-findings-show-relative-relationship-between-co2-emissions-and-global-warming/, scientists report they found that there is a linear relationship between CO2 and global warming, which means X amount of CO2 in the air will result in Y amount of global warming at some point in time. A formula can be applied. This theory will be published in the journal Nature. And the online journal Science published findings that “appear to confirm the validity of the types of computer models that are used to project a warmer climate in the future,” like the theory that is being published in Nature.
Both Nature and Science are peer reviewed journals! Peer reviewed reports have become very important in the argument over global warming. Not only are many global warming skeptics out of their realm of expertise to report about climate change, but are highly motivated by the industries that produce excess CO2, and have not published properly peer reviewed material. They exist to cause doubt.
Global warming theory comes from climate scientists who have employed the scientific method using observations that many of us are witnessing. They will continue to collect data regarding changes around the world in an effort to gain more and more insight to tackle the problem. The results will produce as with all things new in science a constant evolution of facts and predictions. The face of global warming will continue to change. Let’s hope that the time factor involved is correct–that we still have time to act.
Can Mega Wind Farms Inhibit a Tornado or Defer Its Path?
Thursday, May 14th, 2009I was watching ABC news about the 900 mile swath of 21 tornadoes that were active from western Michigan to Missouri last night and remembered watching a special on TV about one of climatologist’s biggest fears, tornadoes that unite to become multi-vortex mega storms. Is this what we’re beginning to experience? The NOAA website reports: “There is a statistical trend (as documented by NSSL’s Harold Brooks) toward wide tornadoes having higher damage ratings. This could be related to greater tornado strength, more opportunity for targets to damage, or some blend of both. However, the size or shape of any particular tornado does not say anything conclusive about its strength.” So there is a trend but it appears to be downplayed, while tornadoes are becoming rampant across the heartland of our country, destroying more and more properties every year, and occurring out of season.
Residents in the Missouri area said they witnessed 4 distinct heads of the multi vortex tornado that covered a 5-mile swath of land. This tornado was also described by the newscaster as a bouncer, touching down, going up, and then touching down again. The same NOAA website states that tornadoes don’t literally skip. It says: “By definition [] a tornado must be in contact with the ground. There is disagreement in meteorology over whether or not multiple touchdowns of the same vortex or funnel cloud mean different tornadoes (a strict interpretation). In either event, stories of skipping tornadoes usually mean
1. There was continuous contact between vortex and ground in the path, but it was too weak to do damage;
2. Multiple tornadoes happened; but there was no survey done to precisely separate their paths (very common before the 1970s); or
3. There were multiple tornadoes with only short separation, but the survey erroneously classified them as one tornado.
So was this multi-vortex, bouncing tornado possibly a new phenomena? Is there anything that can be done to limit the increasing velocity and strength of tornadoes? Well, “Daniel Barrie and Daniel Kirk-Davidoff of the University of Maryland concocted an experiment. They took the pattern of expanding turbine fields to an extreme, and used a computer model to calculate what might happen if all the land from Texas to central Canada, and from the Great Lakes to the Rocky Mountains were covered in one massive wind farm,” according to an article on Discovery Channel website. It said, “[They] acknowledged the hypothetical wind farm was far larger than anything humans are likely to build. But meeting the Department of Energy’s goal of wind power generation by 2030 would require that scores of huge wind farms be built throughout the Midwestern United States. The total disturbance caused by turbines could be enough to steer storms.”
Interesting!
Although the NOAA website states that it is unlikely we could ever come up with anything that could stop a tornado that wouldn’t be worse than the tornado itself, it does talk about dissipating one, which means to slow down or cause it to break up. The website’s FAQ’s page said that tornadoes do need a source of instability and a “larger-scale property of rotation (vorticity) to keep going.” It went on to say that a lot of processes surrounding a storm could rob the area around a tornado of either instability or vorticity. Cold outflow is one. This is the flow of wind out of the precipitation area of a shower or thunderstorm. It’s been observed that cold outflow causes a tornado to go away. It also says: “For decades, storm observers have documented the death of numerous tornadoes when their parent circulations (mesocyclones) weaken after they become wrapped in outflow air — either from the same thunderstorm or a different one.”
Could that different outflow of air possibly be produced by large wind farms in the near future? Could they produce enough wind to replicate the outflow air of a thunderstorm? If so, it’s incentive enough to develop wind power. There are far too many homes and properties destroyed every year from increasingly bad weather. If we thought the stock market dive was bad, imagine insurance companies going bust?
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=7582543
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/11/25/wind-farms-weather.html
Are Destructive Derechos or Bow Echoes Occurring More Frequently Due to Global Warming?
Thursday, May 7th, 2009Before yesterday I never heard of a “derecho,” but after Good Morning America explained this phenomena briefly I’ve been looking up derechos on the Internet ever since. I wanted to know if this little known weather event is occurring more frequently because of global warming? What I found is that a derecho is a bow echo is a MCV pretty much and that they are straight line wind storms that have devastating effects every bit as much as a tornado because they can be relentless, not breaking up until they travel most of the way across the U.S. They can be 250 miles wide, 800 miles long, and pack winds beyond 100 mph. The weird thing about derechos is that they occur mostly over N. America.
Well lucky us. This is another phenomena to be afraid of, very, very afraid especially if it increases in intensity.
View the latest derecho in the U.S:
Now check out this one that went half way around the globe:
According to the meteorologyclimatology.suite101 website, “[Derechos] often first form over the Midwest and charge eastward before weakening over the cooler waters of the Atlantic Ocean. [And] July is the most dangerous month for a derecho. Warm, muggy afternoons and evenings can give rise to these violent thunderstorms. High temperatures and high dew points can turn what was otherwise a regular thunderstorm into a huge raging wall of wind.”
High temps and high dew point huh? Well global warming is bringing higher temps during the summer and as for dew points rising, the 2007 IPCC report stated: “The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas,” according to Wunderground.com which added, “Indeed, global warming theory has long predicted an increase in heavy precipitation events. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air.”
More heat, more moisture more derechos or bow echoes for us. Oh and BTW even though some websites reported that derechos or bow echoes are rare, there have been 273 bow echoes in the U.S. from 1996 to 2002. For a phenomena that only got its name “bow echo” in 1978 from Dr. Ted Fujita, it certainly seems to be making it’s presence known more and more.
http://meteorologyclimatology.suite101.com/article.cfm/understanding
_derechos
Record of derecho events in U.S. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/112100659/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
Rare derecho? http://www.sott.net/articles/show/183672-Rare-derecho-sweeps-across-Southern-US-widespread-damage
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=909&tstamp=200802
Global Warming and Worldwide Recession; The Dustbowl and the Great Depression
Friday, April 24th, 2009I caught a 2-hour special on the History Channel titled, “Black Blizzard.” Everyone should try to catch this as it relates to man and climate. The next airing will be this Sunday, April 26th, at 10:00 am. After seeing this I have to ask: Is history repeating itself in a bigger venue because there are a lot of similarities between the Great Depression and the Dustbowl drought with today’s global warming trend and worldwide recession? Let’s look:
1920’s-30’s U.S. Agricultural Economy
- Industrial Revolution is moving ahead yet agriculture still big part of economy.
- During Hoover’s presidency the Farm Board is created.
- Farm Board decides to boost income of U.S. farmers by withholding grains from world market to drive up prices and for federal banks to make liberal loans to farmers to sustain them while holding back their yields from the market.
- The Farm Board establishes the Grain Stabilization Corp. that begins buying up wheat, which boosts prices above world prices for a short time.
- Wheat farmers prosper causing a huge flow of people West to farm in areas known to suffer regular drought patterns.
- The plan backfires when other countries begin supplying wheat to the world markets and the U.S. wheat farmer loses out.
- The massive back load of U.S. wheat inventory further depresses market prices.
- The same happens to the U.S. cotton industry.
- Herbert Hoover refuses to intervene for the farmer and states the market will correct itself.
- Meanwhile, U.S. foreign trade decreases drastically and what should be a recession turns into a depression. The U.S. quits buying foreign and so the foreign powers default on their debts to the U.S.
- Everyone ignores the environmental impacts of over-farming the land and the dustbowl begins.
1920’s-30’s Climate
- Normal drought patterns in the central plains didn’t produce huge dust storms prior to the big wheat rush because much of the unfarmed areas are covered with desert grasses adapted over time to withstand drought and winds. These grasses keep soil from eroding.
- With the wheat rush farmers uproot most of these grasses. When wheat cannot endure normal patterns of drought no vegetation is left to stop the wind from blowing the dirt away.
- The most fertile layer of soil blows away. Dust storms are thousands of feet into the air and carry some 50 million tons of earth at a time not unlike volcanic ash rising like clouds across miles of terrain.
- The normal arrival of a jet stream from the New Zealand/ Australia area offering rain is diverted due to the massive dust clouds.Â
- The dust storms increase in duration and strength perpetuating the drought.
The Great Dustbowl sets a precedent that man did and therefore can affect our climate. Much of what happened during the Dustbowl sounds familiar like forcing false markets, a greedy rush for a piece of the pie, destroying land/nature for wealth, a horrible economic crash, and subsequent devastation to ourselves and the earth.
Over farming aggravated the normal climate processes throughout the central states during the 30’s to the point it helped to sustain a prolonged and increasingly volatile weather pattern beyond the normal period of drought that had serious impacts for thousands of people especially their health. We still do not fully understand the extent to which all our ecosystems are intrinsically related. As was evidenced by the Great Dustbowl, setting one out of balance for even a brief period of time can cause increased and devastating climate patterns far past the norm.
Watch a video of the extraordinary dustbowl storms of the 30’s:
History Channel – The Black Blizzard: http://www.history.com/shows.do?action=detail&episodeId=366826
This website has many good reference sources: http://science.howstuffworks.com/dust-bowl-cause2.htm
This article relates man’s effects on the dustbowl although it leaves out the History Channel study about diverting the jet stream that would have brought drought relief: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080430152030.htm
If you can find a copy of The Surplus Farmer by Bernhard Ostrolenk published in 1932 about what was happening in the agricultural industry at the time, it should be a pretty good read. Ostrolenk stated: “The Farm Board had advised the farmer to gamble with his crop instead of urging him to market it, and these repeated statements of the Board had led farmers to believe that by withholding their wheat and cotton they could get higher prices. During 1930 it was the known surplus of agricultural commodities in the U.S. which forced farmers to face the most drastic price cuts in a decade.”
This gov’t. website correlates with Ostrolenk’s observations about holding back trade and the ensuing surplus: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib3/eib3.html
Article about the forced market back then: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,846807-2,00.html
Weather to Blame for Crash of Flight 3407
Friday, February 13th, 2009Â
We’ve seen weather in the extreme for the 21st century so far with hurricanes, floods, fires, tornadoes, and rumblings from Alaska’s Mt. Redoubt, but weather affects us in other ways too.
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The latest plane crash of Continental Flight 3407 is a testament to that. It’s becoming more and more clear that the cause of that crash might possibly be from what is termed “rime” ice, a gritty frozen layer that can lower the planes lift by a third according to a report on guardian.co.uk website.
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Considering onlookers saw the plane just above the treetops with nose down and one wing tilted down, it appears it did lose its lift. They also said the engines sounded as if they were grinding. Other pilots in the area were calling the tower about rime ice too, while weather monitors in Buffalo showed high humidity, low clouds, and high turbulence below 5,000 ft. The control tower lost contact with the plane at 5,300 ft.
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The article also reported that this particular type of jet was “a modern make of a turbo prop and would have been equipped with on-plane devices to minimize the threat of rime ice.”
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We have to know that despite all of our ingenuity, we simply are not equipped to deal with weather extremes that are getting worse. Bad weather has the ability to strike us down where we do not get up. After the bout of tornadoes that terrified Oklahoma way too early in the season, it’s anyone’s guess what’s in store for us this year relative to bad weather. What I want to know is how long will our insurance system hold out in light of new and greater disasters facing us brought on by the wrath of Mother Nature and ultimately our neglect of the environment?
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/13/buffalo-plane-crash-new-york
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The Snow Melted Awfully Fast
Monday, February 9th, 2009Â
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Are you a little amazed at how fast the piles of snow melted here in SE Michigan? Apply that thought to the polar ice melt. Michigan was barely in the teens for daytime highs, and at zero and below with the wind chill at night. In one day’s time and with little high wind the temperatures climbed into the 40’s and the snow disappeared almost the same day.
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Heat from the sun is more intense than it used to be. I have buds on my apple, pear, and cherry trees. My pussy willow tree is budding. The buds were there when the weather was frigid. My husband wondered what was making them do that. I said the same thing that allows you to turn off our heat in the house and open our front door that faces south. When I open that door on a sunny but frigid day, I can feel the heat hit me.
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What makes anyone think the Arctic is any different?
Mid-Atlantic States Threatened the Most by Sea Level Rise
Monday, January 19th, 2009Â
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A federal report came out Friday from the EPA, U.S. Geological Survey, and other agencies stating that the Middle Atlantic States are threatened by rising seawater due to global warming.
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There are more and more storms up the mid-Atlantic coast. There are also dense populations near water’s edge always and so infrastructure is in low-lying areas. Think Hilton Head Island, and Tybee Island off of Savannah, gone.Â
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Oh, it’s not like water will just rise and engulf the islands until they disappear. And most people will just shrug when the time span for a two-foot rise to peak is still 90 years off. But so much more happens when a two-foot rise keeps ebbing in slowly. It’s called erosion. And when the furthermost islands give way to erosion, the storms come in much closer to those dense populations.
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It’s these chain reactions that cause all the chaos, the unforeseen problems that arise from something as simple as two feet of water more than usual.Â
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Read the report at: climatescience.gov
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/science/earth/17sea.html?_r=2&ref=science
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The Wildfires in California
Monday, November 17th, 2008
There are still arguments whether or not global warming has contributed to the onslaught of wildfires in California that certainly appear to be getting worse. As a matter of fact, I read an article that suggested it is because of invading populations of people moving into fire prone areas, and/or forest management practices instead. But a scientific paper published a year ago stated “that the changing climate was a greater influence on wildfire activity and intensity than forest management.” http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/Global-Warming-California-Wildfire-47102305.
As for people moving into fire prone areas, sure there would be more likelihood of fires, and more property damage, but Mother Nature is seriously contributing to the wildfire fiasco with a record drought, temperatures in the 80’s-90’s instead of the 70’s for this time of year, and winds that are clocking at 60 and 70 mph, with gusts up to 85! Besides authorities declared that the wildfires in California this past July set a record. There were over 1781 fires burning at once, but luckily most were in sparsely populated areas. So much for the “people-cause-the-fires” theory. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/15/california-wildfires-set-a-record/.
What I find odd is that the same people that deny the fire activity in California is due in part to global warming but instead caused by people, simultaneously deny that people cause global warming. Is this not selective reasoning? Certainly the smoke from these fires contributes heavily to air pollution.
Even an article in Business Week suggested that if we don’t do something soon about global warming the costs of the bad weather produced by it could be devastating for California. It stated that there could be “as much as $3.9 billion in annual damages caused by wildfires, rising sea levels and extreme weather events.” I say ditto for many other parts of the country. http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D94EAOUO1.htm.
California isn’t the only area of concern. Hurricane ravaged Galveston, Texas did not get enough press during the presidential campaign. There are still what can be termed “Katrina victims.” I’ve noticed a pronounced change in path and verocity of tropical storms up the east coast of America. We do not want to see anything that resembles a hurricane hit NYC. This past spring our midwest was hit with horrible floods. Tornadoes in the South in November are becoming common. And let’s get real here. Five states in the SW have experienced huge growth, even though 4 of those states collectively rely on one and the same Colorado River for all of their water needs. Add the mentality that wants to maintain a steady growth in population in America, and we have to ask, “Just where is everyone supposed to live that won’t pose some sort of weather and/or uninhabitable terrain problem in the U.S.?” Can’t run, can hide from Mother Nature.
Earthquake in the Virgin Islands
Monday, October 13th, 2008
Is it just me or are there more earthquakes happening in more spots around the world? Not long ago, Ohio had tremors, and now Virgin Island residents woke to a 6.1 rumble on Saturday morning. Luckily no injuries or problems were reported.
This was the strongest earthquake to hit Puerto Rico in 20 years according to an article on Newsday.com, and it happened on the 90th anniversary of the worst earthquake to ever hit Puerto Rico, “a magnitude 7.3 quake that killed 118 people in the western half of the U.S. Caribbean territory.” What are the odds of that happening on the exact same day?
Since earthquakes seem to be making the rounds in unlikely places, maybe Michigan will hear a rumble or two again. Earlier this year in April, earthquake tremors were felt in Kalamazoo from the 5.2 earthquake in Illinois. And I remember the Michigan earthquake in the 70’s. I want to say 1978, but I don’t remember the exact year. I do remember what most people report, “it felt like a truck hit the building,” and that’s exactly what I thought. The way my apartment shook at Charlotte Arms, I thought someone overshot their parking space and rammed the building.
I’m not keen on feeling that again anytime too soon.
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-cb-virgin-islands-earthquake,0,5022590.story.